Technical reversal signals are emerging amid extreme oversold conditions following an aggressive institutional distribution wave.
News background
• Puppy wallets dumped nearly 200 million XRP (~$400 million) over 48 hours, triggering acute supply pressure
• Market-wide risk-off intensified as Bitcoin fell below $90,000, pulling altcoins into deeper volatility
• Bitwise’s new XRP ETF posted $25.7m. first-day volume and $107.6 million. AUM, signaling strong institutional demand
• Sentiment across the majors remains fragile, with overall crypto market cap still sliding amid strong outflows
Summary of price action
• XRP fell from $1.96 → $1.91, the lowest close in three sessions
• Volume increased 67% above average to 182.1 million, confirming institutional sales
• A descending channel dominated the session with 5.1% intraday volatility
• Capitulation bottom formed at $1,895, followed by a 0.5% reversal in late session
• Volume in the last hour rose to 2.76 million, breaking the pattern of declining activity
Technical Analysis
XRP’s session reflected a classic distribution-driven decline followed by early reversal signals. Whale selling created sustained downward pressure as major holders unloaded nearly 200 million tokens, overwhelming the $1.96 resistance band and pushing XRP into a descending channel that continued through most of the session.
Support at $1.90-$1.91 emerged as the key battleground. The psychological level attracted aggressive buying after a capitulation event at $1,895 where institutional inflows reversed the intraday trend. Momentum indicators – including the RSI and short-term stochastic – were flashing deep oversold conditions, creating the first bullish divergence since last week’s big crash.
The sharp increase of 2.76 M volume during the bounce suggests early accumulation behavior, contradicting the earlier decline in multi-hour participation. Yet the macrostructure remains fragile. Bulls need to force a clean break above $1.96 to invalidate the descending channel and try to reverse the trend. Failure to defend $1.90 would expose the chart to a quick extension towards $1.82, then $1.73.
What traders should see
• $1.90 remains the line in the sand. A close below opens the way to October’s deep cash pockets
• Recapture of $1.96 is essential to neutralize the descending channel and restore short-term bullish momentum
• ETF flows – especially Bitwise’s AUM trajectory – can provide upside catalysts if volume accelerates
• Deviations and oversold signals favor short-term rejection attempts, but whale distribution remains the dominant risk
• Market-wide fear levels remain high; XRP will continue to overreact to Bitcoin volatility
