The world witnessed two nuclear forces going head-to-head in a kinetic exchange that spans several days. Several cities were hit, military installations attacked, and dozens of civilian and military deaths reported. Some of the most deadly and advanced weapons of destruction were seen in action on both sides.
Global leaders and institutions sounded alarms, and eventually an exciting peace was achieved at the moment. However, India calls it a pure break and says Operation Sindoor is still on. This is the closest world has come to a nuclear war for decades. This simply has to be unacceptable to the world. We have clearly gone up on the escalation ladder in this conflict and this cannot be allowed to become the new normal.
Nationalist jingoism, religious fanaticism, political opportunism and great egos divorced from reality cannot be allowed to put the world at risk of a nuclear armageeddon. We cannot allow this game of Russian roulette repeatedly to be played with the hope that either regional and global players will intervene and give a face saving to allow for suspension of hostilities, or that one of the countries involved will be willing to take unbearable pain and loss and not resort to a nuclear option.
This means that the underlying reasons for the conflict between the two countries must be addressed instead of just surviving the current conflict and waiting for the next trigger point to result in another, perhaps even deadly, round with hostilities to follow.
The explosive nature of the underlying combustible material can be measured at the speed of escalation of this crisis. On April 22, a terrible terrorist incident takes place in Pahaldam, resulting in deaths of over two dozen innocent people. Within an hour, India accuses Pakistan, and even identify the suspected owed and statements seeking revenge. Within a few days, the non-kinetic escalation begins with India announcing the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, closing the Kartarpur corridor, both sides closing the Wagah border, stopping all trade and exhibiting many diplomats in each country.
Pakistan prohibits Indian Airlines from flying over Pakistani airspace. In just two weeks, kinetic action starts, with India attacking not only the control line but also the international border. Pakistan retaliates instantly – and the loss of Indian assets and the goals affected in Pakistan are reported globally. On the fourth day, escalation reached a level that was not seen since the 1971 war, and certainly not seen when the two countries achieved nuclear capacity.
As scary as the speed of this escalation between the two nuclear neighbors was for the world, the concept of nuclear escalation ladder warns that the prospects of the next few days if the conflict was allowed to continue could have been much more serious. Basically, the concept states that as two opponents move up the escalation ladder, the speed at which the next ring of the ladder is reached is reached. This also makes common sense.
With each step up in escalation, the damage caused by the target country is greater. Therefore, with increasing consequences for each escalation, the potential cost of being late in response or being exempt from the opponent increases. This creates a situation where decision makers to use common languages can become trigger -happy, willing to take the risk of being too early instead of risking being too late.
It is good to see that lectures at DGMO level have taken place and another round is expected soon. However, we have to go much beyond that. A comprehensive dialogue must be initiated and all the questions that are important to both sides must be discussed. Specifically, the question of terrorism that became the trigger point of the current round of conflict must be addressed.
India has its own perception and complaints about the issue of cross -border supported terrorism. So does Pakistan, who has been one of the greatest victims of terrorism in the 21st century. Last year, the second highest number of terrorist incidents in the world was registered in Pakistan. If something, this year, the pace of these terrorist attacks is even higher. It is absolutely important for peace that these events on both sides are fully examined, preferably by neutral third -party inspectors. Terrorism as an instrument of state policy can have no place in the world today, and certainly not in a highly militarized nuclear region.
This process is obviously a long time when some major decisions have to be made by both countries to create lasting peace. Meanwhile, the current status quo provides for deep mutual suspicion, where high barriers have been created to stop almost all interface between the two countries, burning material for misunderstanding and the creation of another flash point. All trade blocked, all movement of people across borders stopped, the other country’s media and social media blocked, diplomatic presence down to the minimum, etc.
Winning a war or conflict gives rise to patriotic innerness and feeds national pride. Winning peace lays the basis for improving the life of the nation’s people for generations. For the sake of the more than 1.5 billion people in Pakistan and India, let the leadership of both countries meet and win peace.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and does not necessarily reflect Pakinomist.tv’s editorial policy.
The author is a retired business administrator and former federal minister.
Originally published in the news
