Robinhood ( HOOD ) could see more revenue upside from the prediction markets than Coinbase ( COIN ) as users deploy fresh cash instead of selling existing holdings, according to a study by Japanese investment bank Mizuho ( MFG ).
“We expect a larger percentage revenue advantage for HOOD vs. COIN, as the survey found that users on that platform are more likely to fund the prediction market portfolio with fresh money,” analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins wrote in Tuesday’s report.
Robinhood and Coinbase users are far more likely than other investors to trade prediction markets, with activity skewed to economic and political events, the analysts found. The bank raised its revenue forecasts for Robinhood but cut its Coinbase price target amid concerns that prediction market activity could cannibalize crypto trading.
Mizuho surveyed more than 230 Robinhood and Coinbase users and found that they are about nine times more likely to participate in prediction markets than respondents who do not use either app. Economic events (81%) and political events (49%) were the most popular themes among respondents, with sports (47%) close behind, the bank said.
How users plan to fund these trades is where the two platforms diverge, according to the report. About 50% of Robinhood respondents said they expect to use fresh money to trade prediction markets, while selling traditional portfolios or crypto ranks much lower (12% and 10%, respectively).
Coinbase users, on the other hand, most often cited selling crypto (37%) and adding new money (37%) as their primary sources of funds, raising what the analysts described as a risk that prediction markets could cannibalize existing crypto trading revenue.
That funding mix leads to a bigger medium-term revenue boost for Robinhood than for Coinbase, the analysts said, although COIN users expect to allocate a slightly higher proportion of their portfolio to prediction markets in about a year (15% vs. 13% for HOOD).
With Robinhood’s predictive market business on track to reach about $300 million in the fourth quarter and about 2.5 billion contracts in October, Mizuho said it is raising its 2026-2027 revenue estimates for the company by 6%-7%. The bank maintained its outperform rating on the stock and its price target of $172.
Coinbase is expected to launch a market prediction product on Wednesday, which Mizuho sees as a positive step, but not yet enough to change its numbers.
The bank said it has not incorporated any prediction market upside into its Coinbase model due to uncertainty about the final product design and economics and the potential for crypto sales to fund prediction trades. Mizuho also cited weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter trends and lower bitcoin prices as it cut its Coinbase price target to $280 from $320 and reiterated its neutral rating on the stock.
Robinhood was 2.6% higher in early trade, at $122.53. Coinbase was 2% higher, trading at $257.63.
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