By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
The Czech National Bank became the world’s first central bank to buy bitcoin and a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) debuted in the US with impressive trading volume.
Still, what dominates headlines is bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 and the crypto market crash. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index has fallen 8.35% in the past 24 hours amid a broader decline that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 1.65% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lose 2.29% on Thursday.
Spot bitcoin ETFs also saw significant outflows. Investors pulled $869 million on Thursday, the second-largest daily exit on record. Over the past three weeks, spot bitcoin ETFs have lost $2.64 billion.
“We see a steady interest in owning long-term BTC volumes around 80-120k, paired with selective short-term call selling (classical covered call activity),” said crypto market maker Wintermute. “Position leans neutral to cautious but shows no appetite to chase big downside.”
When it comes to ether options, Wintermute noted that it sees “consistent downside hedging to year-end and active call selling across the curve, particularly 3.5-4.0k.” Traders position themselves for the downside.
The sale sparked a wave of liquidations, leading to more than $1.11 billion in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. It comes as expectations of a US interest rate cut in December begin to fade and concerns about an AI bubble.
CME’s FedWatch tool shows the odds of a rate cut this month are close to a push, while traders at the Polymarket still give a 25 bps cut a slight edge, weighing a 52% chance of it happening. That’s down from 90% at the end of last month.
Adding to the uncertainty, the White House said the latest key economic indicators, including October inflation, may not be released at all due to delays from the now-ending government shutdown.
“Now that AI excitement is cooling and more questions are being raised about consumption, concerns about the K-shaped economy in the US are being raised again,” Wintermute wrote.
Despite the milestones the crypto sector is reaching, with spot ETFs from major issuers trading and a central bank buying BTC, macro headwinds are keeping prices under pressure. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- November 14: American Bitcoin (ABTC), premarket.
- November 14: Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Convex Finance votes to discontinue OFT token support for assets such as frxETH on Polygon zkEVM and Blast, citing their depreciation or inactivity. Voting ends November 14.
- Unlocks
- November 15: WalletConnect Token (WCT) to unlock 65.21% of its circulating supply, worth $13.76 million.
- November 15: to unlock 2.92% of its circulating supply, worth $25.45 million.
- November 15: to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply, worth $14.44 million.
- November 16: to unlock 1.94% of its circulating supply valued at $24.76 million.
- The token is launched
- November 14: Pieverse (Pieverse) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, BingX, XT and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.87% as of 16 ET Thursday at $104,909.52 (24 hours: -6.05%)
- ETH is down 0.56% to $3,160.31 (24h: -9.6%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.17% to 3,096.79 (24h: -8.14%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps to 2.88%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0082% (8.944% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.2% to 99.36
- Gold futures are down 0.56% at $4,170.90
- Silver futures are down 1.08% at $52.60
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.77% at 50,376.53
- The Hang Seng closed down 1.85% to 26,572.46
- The FTSE is down 1.35% to 9,675.09
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.01% to 5,684.85
- The DJIA closed down 1.65% to 47,457.22 on Thursday
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.66% at 6,737.49
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.29% to 22,870.36
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.86% at 30,253.64
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.32% at 3,103.60
- The US 10-year Treasury note rose 1.8 bps to 4.129%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.23% at 6,744.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.48% at 24,974.25
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.15% at 47,476.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.77% (-0.67%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.0327 (0.84%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1089 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $40.31
- Total Fees: 2.96 BTC / $300,582
- CME Futures open interest: 140,275 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 22.8 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 11.46%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily movements in Volmex’s 30-day bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV.
- The index has formed a pennant pattern marking a triangular consolidation after the recent bullish trendline breakout.
- Such patterns usually indicate a temporary pause that refreshes higher. Therefore, the pennant could soon resolve bullish, paving the way for more increases in the index.
- In other words, BTC price volatility expectations may continue to rise in the short term.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $283.14 (-6.86%), -1.82% at $277.99 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $82.34 (-4.59%), -0.62% at $81.83
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.24 (-12.89%), -3.34% at $26.33
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $41.02 (-9.85%), -2% at $40.20
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.78 (-11.31%), -2.11% at $12.51
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.88 (-10.22%), -2.59% at $13.52
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.16 (-7.79%), -2.97% at $14.71
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.98 (-10.13%), -3.09% at $11.61
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.97 (-12.07%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $18.15 (-8.84%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $208.54 (-7.15%), -1.89% at $204.59
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23 (-10.61%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.99 (-5.01%), -2.37% at $10.73
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.22 (-4.73%), -0.62% at $3.20
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.9 (-5.47%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$866.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $59.33 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.34m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$259.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.33 billion
- Total ETH holding ~6.48 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- Bitcoin Dips Below $97,000, ETH, SOL, ADA Drop 8% to $880M in Bullish Bets Liquidated (CoinDesk): Bitcoin fell below $98,000 for the first time since May as $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out in 24 hours. About $887 million came from longs.
- Why Are Bitcoin, XRP, Solana and Ether Slipping While Gold and Silver Rise? (CoinDesk) Rising credit risks are squeezing debt-financed crypto treasuries and raising the threat of forced token sales, while gold and silver benefit from rising fiscal concerns and a global flight to safety.
- 3 Key Charts to Track as Ether Strengthens Against Bitcoin (CoinDesk): ETH’s outperformance lifted its BTC ratio as charts show seller exhaustion and a potential momentum shift signaled by a looming MACD crossover.
- China’s economy jolted by weakest factory output, retail sales growth in more than a year (Reuters): October’s disappointing factory and retail figures highlight deeper structural problems and fading policy tools as Beijing hesitates to unleash fresh stimulus despite mounting pressure.
