Late. Adam Schiff (D-CA) has introduced proposed legislation that would ban predictive market contracts tied to terrorism, war, assassination and death, directly challenging the market regulator CFTC’s shift toward looser regulation of event trading.
The bill, called the DEATH BETS Act, would strip the agency of its discretion over whether to allow such contracts and write explicit bans into law, putting Schiff on a collision course with CFTC Chairman Mike Selig’s deregulation agenda.
Schiff, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee that oversees the CFTC, is positioned to press the issue legislatively as the agency’s new rulemaking takes shape.
Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC already has the authority to block contracts linked to war, terrorism or assassination if it determines they are contrary to the public interest. But enforcement depends on the discretion of the regulator, meaning the extent of protection shifts with the agency’s leadership.
Schiff’s bill would remove that flexibility. It would prohibit any CFTC-registered exchange from listing contracts that involve, relate to or refer to terrorism, assassination, war or the death of a person. The prohibition extends to contracts that can be “construed as closely correlating” with a person’s death, a particularly broad standard.
“Betting on war and death creates an environment where insiders can profit from classified information, our national security is at risk, and violence is encouraged,” Schiff said in a statement. “There is no justification for gambling on the lives or public good of such a market.”
Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) will introduce companion legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a release from Schiff’s office.
The proposal comes as the CFTC under Selig rewrites its approach to regulating prediction markets.
In February, the agency withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have broadly banned political prediction markets, with Selig criticizing the earlier effort as overstepping the law.
