Bitcoin

is traded over $ 100,000 again and investors who are prone to Recency Bias may be quick to assume that this event will play out as it did in December-January as the Tyremomentum faded, with prices quickly fell back into six numbers and eventually falls as low as $ 75,000.

However, according to the following six charts, the Bitcoin market now occurs more robust than in December-January, which suggests a higher likelihood of a continued move higher.

Financial conditions: (DXY, 10Y, 30Y GIVES VS BTC)

Financial conditions refer to various economic variables, including interest, inflation, credit access and market liquidity. These are influenced by the benchmark state bonds, the US 10-year-old Treasury outcome, the dollar exchange and other factors.

Tighter financial conditions deduct risk taking in the financial markets and the economy, while easier conditions have the opposite effect.

From writing, economic conditions are represented by the 10-year dividend and the dollar index much easier than in January, which favors a sustained feature higher in BTC.

At the time of the press, the dollar index, which measures Greenback’s value against larger currencies, was 99.60, 9% from heights over 109.00 in January. The yield on the US 10-year-old Treasury was 4.52%, down 30 basic points from the high of 4.8% in January.

The 30-year yield has risen over 5%and revised levels seen in January, but is largely seen as positive for Bitcoin and gold.

More dry powder

The combined market value of the top two USD-Pegged Stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has reached a record height of $ 151 billion. That’s almost 9% higher than the average $ 139 billion in December-January, according to data source trading.

In other words, there is now a larger amount of dry powder available for potential investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Bold directional bets

BTC’s races higher from the beginning of April -lavt near $ 75,000 are characterized by the fact that institutions are predominantly taking bullish directional bets instead of arbitrage -betting.

It is clearly of the flowering inflows of the US erected spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFS) and the still muted open interest in CME BTC futures.

According to the data source Velo, the nominal open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has sprung to $ 17 billion, the highest since February 20. Still, it remains well below the December height of $ 22.79 billion.

On the contrary, the cumulative influxes are for the 11 spot -NEFS, now on a record $ 42.7 billion against $ 39.8 billion in January, according to the data source Farside Investors.

No signs of speculative innerness

Historically, preliminary and large Bitcoin tops, including December-Januar, have been characterized by speculative innerness in the wider market, leading to a sharp increase in market assessments for non-seriously tokens such as DOGE and SHIB.

There are no such characters now, with the combined market sheath of DODE and SHIB well under their January heights.

No signs of overheating

Bitcoin Perpetual Futures Market shows the demand for bullish geared efforts, understandably, given that BTC is trading almost record heights.

However, the overall positioning remains easy without signs of building excess leverage or bullish overheating, as evidenced by funding rates that hovers well under heights seen in December.

The diagram shows financing rates that refer to the cost of keeping eternal futures betting. The positive figure indicates a bias too long among bulls to pay shorts to keep their positions open. It’s a sign of bullish market mood.

Implicit volatility suggests calm

The Bitcoin market occurs much quieter this time, with Deribit’s DVOL index, measuring the 30-day expected or implied volatility, significantly lower than levels observed in December-January and March 2024 price tops.

The low IV suggests that dealers do not prices in the extreme price fluctuations or uncertainty that typically exist in an overheated market, indicating a more measured and potentially more sustainable increase.