By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
As the new quarter gets under way, the crypto market is sending a subtle but important signal: traders seem a little more cautious about bitcoin than ether (ETH).
You can see this in the options market, where more experienced traders and institutions go to hedge risk or generate extra returns. Think of options as a kind of insurance. Traders can buy protection against price declines (puts) or bet on price increases (calls), depending on their outlook.
Right now, a key metric called a risk reversal is negative for both bitcoin and ether across different timeframes. Simply put, this means that puts, or downside protection, are more expensive than bullish bets. When traders are willing to pay more for put options, it usually signals persistent fear of a price decline. This is quite normal considering the brutal downward trend in bitcoin and ether since October.
But here’s where it gets interesting: that caution is stronger for bitcoin. Put options on bitcoin are more expensive than those on ether across all timeframes, suggesting traders are more concerned about BTC’s downside risk.
The difference becomes even clearer when you zoom out further. Longer-dated ether options, such as those expiring next March, are only slightly bearish, while bitcoin’s equivalent options have a much steeper premium for downside protection.
In short, the market is betting that ether will be relatively resilient. That would signal a bullish trend change in the ether-to-bitcoin ratio, which has been in a downtrend since August (see technical analysis section).
Ether is up 5% over the last 24 hours, outpacing bitcoin XRP (XRP), solana (SOL) and the CoinDesk 20 index. Several smaller tokens associated with quantum computer-resistant technology are up 20% or more.
Analysts said a firm breakout in BTC above its 50-day moving average of $68,680 is likely to strengthen the bullish momentum.
In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for a fourth straight day, while futures tied to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose nearly 0.5%. Together, these things point to a sense of risk ahead. Pay attention
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 1 April at 08.15: Change in employment in the US ADP in March (previous 63,000)
- 1 April at 10:00: US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March (prev 52.4)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- April 1: HTX hosts a live X Spaces session with World Mobile.
- April 1: KuCoin hosts a live X Spaces session with Katana.
- Unlocks
- April 1: to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply valued at $38.29 million.
- The token is launched
- April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased IPO period following the token generation event.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.61% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $68,622.64 (24 hours: +3.34%)
- ETH is up 1.47% to $2,136.90 (24h: +5.27%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.62% to 1,968.28 (24 hours: +3.62%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0033% (3.5193% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.37% to 99.59
- Gold futures are up 1.5% at $4,748.80
- Silver futures are down 0.69% at $74.40
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 5.24% at 53,739.68
- The Hang Seng closed up 2.04% to 25,294.03
- The FTSE is up 1.63% to 10,342.45
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.75% to 5,667.09
- The DJIA closed Tuesday up 2.49% at 46,341.51
- The S&P 500 closed up 2.91% at 6,528.52
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 3.83% at 21,590.63
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 2.61% to 32,768.04
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86
- US 10-year Treasury is down 3.2 bps at 4.279%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.33% to 6,592.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.48% to 24,030.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures rose 0.36% to 46,750.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.72% (-0.04%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03111 (0.89%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,004 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.37
- Total Fees: 2.47 BTC / $166,441
- CME Futures open interest: 104,900 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 14.5 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.58%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in the ether-bitcoin ratio in the candlestick format.
- The ratio has been lower since August, showing ether underperformance relative to bitcoin. This downward trend is represented by the yellow line connecting the steady decline over seven months.
- The outlook would turn bullish if the ratio rises past this trend line. Such a move would confirm investors’ renewed preference for ether, as suggested by the options market.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $174.61 (+8.60%), +1.80% at $177.75 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $95.41 (+6.12%), +2.69% at $97.98
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $18.45 (+7.58%), +1.94% at $18.81
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.73 (+7.39%), +0.95% at $36.07
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.16 (+4.62%), +1.35% at $8.27
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.36 (+4.48%), +2.35% at $12.65
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.96 (+7.55%), -0.40% at $14.90
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.51 (+4.03%), +2.12% at $8.69
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $34.82 (+7.70%), +1.81% at $35.45
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.50 (+4.84%), -0.92% at $6.44
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $124.80 (+2.77%), +1.48% at $126.65
- Strive (ASST): closed at $10.02 (+6.94%), +1.90% at $10.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.45 (+7.32%), +2.02% at $6.58
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.99 (+3.90%), +6.49% at $1.05
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.16 (+11.54%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $117.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.09 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $31.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.59 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.70 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
Trump says Iran war could end in ‘two weeks’, with or without deal (euronews): Trump, who will address the nation Wednesday night, said the war in Iran could end in two to three weeks. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said its war against Tehran will continue.
Iran fires missiles across Middle East as Trump signals exit (Bloomberg): Iran fired missiles across the Middle East as Israel and the United States continued their bombardment of the Islamic Republic, even as Trump fueled market optimism by signaling he is preparing to end the war.
United Arab Emirates wants to force Hormuz open and is willing to join the fight (The Wall Street Journal): The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the United States and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to join the war.
Crypto asset manager CoinShares to list on Nasdaq after $1.2 billion SPAC deal (CoinDesk): CoinShares, a leading European digital asset manager with over $6 billion under management, is to begin trading on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol CSHR.
