What do you call a market that consistently shrugs off headlines that normally send it tumbling? You call it robust with a strong underlying demand support.
That’s been the bitcoin story in recent weeks, as the cryptocurrency held steady around $70,000 even as the Iran war rages, oil prices rise and Fed interest-rate cuts fizzle. This kind of defiance screams bullishness.
But hold on, some key indicators are still going the wrong way, throwing a wrench into the bullish interpretation.
The first indicator is Coinbase Premium, which measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase, a Nasdaq-listed exchange, and on offshore giant Binance. Typically, a strong positive premium means that US institutional investors bid more aggressively than their global counterparts. A strong Coinbase premium has regularly appeared during bull runs, including bitcoin’s first run to $100,000 in late 2024.
But right now, Coinbase Premium is at its most negative in over a month, according to data source Coinglass. In other words, BTC is trading at a discount on Coinbase, indicating relatively softer demand from US investors. The discount reappeared on March 19 and has grown ever since.
Another key indicator — bitcoin ETF inflows, also a proxy for institutional demand — has been underwhelming of late.
The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.53 billion in net inflows this month, ending a three-month streak of outflows, per SoSoValue. But nearly $1.3 billion arrived in the first half, with the pace slowing significantly to just $195 million since. Analysts have repeatedly emphasized that consistent, strong inflows are essential for Bitcoin prices to gain bullish momentum.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the India-based Giottus Exchange, put it best: “The signal here is that institutional demand has not disappeared. However, it is selective and less linear than in the strongest accumulation phases.”
At the time of writing, bitcoin was changing hands at around $70,000, according to CoinDesk data.
