Investment bank Standard Chartered cut its short-term and full-year price forecasts for major cryptocurrencies, citing continued downside risk as exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a challenging macro backdrop weigh on the market.
The bank now expects bitcoin to drop to around $50,000 in the coming months, with ether potentially tied near $1,400.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $67,900 at the time of publication. Ether, the second largest, traded around $1,980.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset analysis, said the sell-off in recent weeks could extend as ETF investors, many at a loss, are more likely to reduce exposure than “buy the dip.”
Once prices establish a bottom, Kendrick said, he expects a recovery through the rest of 2026. The analyst cut his year-end target for bitcoin to $100,000 from $150,000, ether to $4,000 from $7,500, solana to $135 from $250, BNB Chain to $1,050 from $1,755 and to $18 from $100.
The crypto market has weakened sharply in early 2026, with major assets such as bitcoin falling significantly from late 2025 highs and overall market capitalization falling sharply in recent weeks. Bitcoin is down almost 23% since the start of the year.
The downturn has been marked by increased volatility, large liquidations of leveraged positions and broad risk-off sentiment, which has seen crypto correlate closer with weakening equity markets.
Macro pressures such as worries about global growth and the interest rate outlook have pushed investors towards traditional safe havens like gold, while regulatory clarity has stalled, particularly in the US, and liquidity strains at some institutions have weighed on confidence. Together, these forces have led to reduced trading revenue for crypto-exposed companies and bearish sentiment across many tokens.
Holdings of bitcoin ETFs are down nearly 100,000 BTC from their peak in October 2025, according to Kendrick. The average ETF purchase price is around $90,000, leaving many investors with unrealized losses of around 25%.
Macro conditions also weigh on the mood. Kendrick noted that while US economic data shows signs of easing, markets expect no rate cuts before Kevin Warsh’s first meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee as chairman of the Federal Reserve in mid-June, limiting support for risk assets in the near term.
Despite the expected capitulation, the bank said the current downturn is less severe than previous cycles. At its worst in early February, bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 peak and about half of the supply remained in excess, declines that are sharp but not as extreme as in previous downturns.
Crucially, this cycle has not seen the collapse of major crypto platforms, unlike 2022’s failure of Terra/Luna and FTX. Kendrick said that suggests the asset class is maturing and more resilient.
The analyst left his long-term projections unchanged, maintaining end-2030 targets of $500,000 for bitcoin and $40,000 for ether, arguing that usage trends and structural drivers remain intact.
The analyst previously reduced his bullish bitcoin forecasts in December.
Read more: Standard Chartered throws in the towel on Bullish Bitcoin Forecast
