The race is on among analysts to predict how far bitcoin could fall, with target prices falling further each day. The latest to jump in is Stifel, a leading full-service financial services firm headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Analysts at the 136-year-old company predict the bitcoin price could crash to as low as $38,000.
“Already down -41% from the high, bitcoin super bears have followed a linear trend suggesting a potential low of ~$38K,” the team led by Barry B. Bannister said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
They look at a straight line drawn across the lows of every major bitcoin crash since 2010. Bitcoin fell 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022. A line connecting these market bottoms slopes upward and points to $38,000 as the current potential nadir falls.
Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in October and has since crashed to nearly $70,000, last seen in November 2024.
The curious case of Benjamin Bitcoin
The Stifel analysts explained the bearish case with an analogy linked to the movie “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”
In the film and the F. Scott Fiztgerald story on which it is based, Button gets younger as everyone else gets older. Bitcoin is like that: A fixed supply cap of 21 million BTC made it stronger – younger in analysts’ terms – as the dollar weakened from general money printing.
Now it’s fraying, like the kid version of Button who looks 10 but plays 80, stuck playing piano for pensioners.
Bitcoin used to rise with more global cash and weaker dollars, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed. It is now falling with the dollar. The dollar index is down nearly 1% this year, extending last year’s decline of nearly 10%.
“Prior to 2025, Bitcoin rose as the dollar fell and the global M2 money supply (converted to dollars) rose, thus ‘aging behind’ fiat, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed,” the analysts said.
The behavior is boosted by bitcoin, which closely tracks Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index and growth stocks, which rise on dovish pivots by the Federal Reserve and fall on hawkish ones. Although the Fed cut rates in the last three meetings in 2025, these carried a largely hawkish tone, downplaying faster cuts in the future.
That tone is ominous, the analysts said, especially as technology companies are borrowing more heavily, which has raised their borrowing costs. This could lead to financial tightening, hit stock valuations and add to the pain in the bitcoin market.
