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Pakistan sent first batch of quality rice to Dhaka as direct trade between the nations has resumed. PHOTO: FILE
ISLAMABAD:
On 9 February, the Pakistan military’s media wing issued a statement marking the end of multinational exercises. The handout was accompanied by a series of pictures. One photograph stood out, however: Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir standing with a contingent of the Bangladesh Army. It wasn’t just an optic. It symbolized the quiet but unmistakable transformation underway in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations.
Just two weeks earlier, the two countries resumed direct flights after a 14-year hiatus. Last year, DPM/FM Ishaq Dar traveled to Dhaka, the first visit by a Pakistani foreign minister in 13 years. More high-level exchanges followed, underscoring the renewed heat.
Such a development would have been unthinkable a few years ago. During Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule, Bangladesh virtually closed the door on any meaningful rapprochement with Pakistan. The Awami League government forged unusually close ties with India, leading critics to argue that New Delhi, not Dhaka, had become the ultimate seat of influence.
This calculus changed dramatically in August 2024, when Hasina was ousted following a violent uprising led by Bangladeshi students. The shift was tectonic. Many young Bangladeshis accused India of supporting an increasingly authoritarian regime and undermining democratic institutions. Their anger deepened when New Delhi gave shelter to the fugitive Hasina and continued to shield her despite repeated calls for her extradition.
Amid this reset, Bangladesh’s ties with Pakistan took off. The interim government rolled back years of restrictions on Pakistani diplomats, eased visa restrictions and removed barriers to exports. There have been increasing demands in Bangladesh for closer defense cooperation. The Bangladesh Air Force chief recently visited Islamabad, where discussions reportedly focused on a potential JF-17 fighter jet deal. Initiatives that once seemed politically impossible are now firmly on the table.
Against this background, Thursday’s landmark election in Bangladesh had not only domestic significance but profound geostrategic implications. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), marginalized during Hasina’s tenure, swept the polls with a two-thirds majority. Jamaat-e-Islami, previously banned, won parliamentary representation for the first time in years.
Tarique Rahman, who returned from exile days before the vote, is set to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister. The son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia and the late president Ziaur Rahman, Tarique represents a political tradition historically more open to balanced regional engagement.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to call Tarique Rahman to congratulate him, an early indication that New Delhi is keen to maintain influence in Dhaka despite recent turbulence.
What it means for Pakistan and the region
Under Awami League rule, Pakistan struggled to restore ties. Hasina repeatedly linked normalization to a formal apology over the events of 1971. Islamabad maintained that its leaders had already expressed regret and argued that the matter was dealt with under the 1974 Tripartite Agreement signed by Pakistan, India and the newly formed Bangladesh.
GDP’s return changes the equation. Historically, Pakistan-Bangladesh relations were relatively smoother under BNP-led governments. Still, experts caution against simplistic assumptions. It is unlikely that Tarique Rahman will pursue an anti-India or anti-Pakistan policy. Bangladesh’s economic progress and strategic location require a pragmatic, multi-vector foreign policy.
Still, Pakistan seems to enjoy a relative advantage at this point. The public mood in Bangladesh has changed, especially among the youth. Defense cooperation, trade, connectivity and people-to-people exchanges are expanding. If nurtured carefully, these openings can institutionalize a more durable partnership.
For India, the challenge will be one of recalibration rather than confrontation. Bangladesh remains too important, geographically, economically and strategically, for New Delhi to lose ground. Expect India to intensify diplomatic outreach and economic incentives to sustain its efforts.
The new picture does not suggest a zero-sum competition, but a rebalancing. Bangladesh under Tarique Rahman is likely to diversify its partnerships, reduce overdependence on a single power and assert greater strategic autonomy.
For Pakistan, the opportunity is real, but so is the test. Converting token gestures into sustained collaboration will require patience, sensitivity to history, and a forward-looking agenda. If managed wisely, the image of Pakistan’s army chief standing with Bangladeshi troops may well be remembered as more than a photo op, it could mark the beginning of a new regional alignment in South Asia.
