Six Polymarket accounts earned about $1.2 million after correctly betting that the United States would attack Iran on February 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
In a post on X, Bubblemaps said most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack and bought “Yes” shares in the “US Attack Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.
The attacks followed a televised address by US President Donald Trump announcing what he called “major combat operations” targeting the country’s missile, naval and nuclear infrastructure. The attack saw bitcoin’s price fall, while oil futures on Hyperliquid rose.
A Polymarket account Bubblemaps indicated it bought more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out nearly $560,000 after the market settled at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, making a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.
Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract reached nearly $90 million, part of more than $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December.
Bubblemaps released a visual map showing the six wallets aggregated and funded through similar paths.
The trades land as US regulators weigh how to police insider activity in prediction markets. This week, rival platform Kalshi said it suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of show results.
Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market, said it has investigated about 200 cases and has more than a dozen active probes.
The CFTC issued a notice noting the enforcement actions and warning that insider trading on event contracts may violate US law. Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the “first line of defense.” Kalshi banned the employee for two years and fined him more than $20,000. In a separate case, a political candidate was punished for betting on his own race.
Recently, Polymarket traders have been found to insider trade a market for insider trading itself. Blockchain practitioner ZachXBT teased last week that he would publish the results of an investigation into a crypto platform that ended up being Axiom, whose employees he believed used non-public information to trade.
Teasing the investigation was underway, however, led to the creation of a Polymarket contract, which the company would be named. Some clearly knew the answer to which company was under investigation, with Lookonchain identifying 12 wallets heavily betting on Axiom ahead of the disclosure.
