This is a daily analysis of Coindesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
Larger cryptocurrencies look bullish with market leader Bitcoin Exhibits a classic reverse head-and-shoulder breakout that could drive it against $ 120,000.
But there is a catch. The daily chart for the S&P 500 e-mini futures shows a bearish pattern, indicating a potential sale that could weigh on the cryptocurrency market and trap bulls on the wrong side of the market.
S&P 500 hits record high with rising wedge
E-mini-futures have risen nearly 5% to a record height of $ 6,542 since August 1st. The slow increase has taken the shape of a rising wedge pattern identified by converting trend lines connecting July 31 and August 15 heights and low reached on August 1 and August 22.
The converging trend lines indicate that Bullish Momentum is declining, increasing the likelihood of a sale.
When Google Gemini was asked to identify and analyze the pattern on the S&P 500 futures, Google replied: “When a rising wedge, which is a bearish reversing pattern, appears after an extended rally to detect heights, it significantly increases the probability of a sharp downward move.
Cryptocurrencies are known to carefully track Wall Street atmosphere, which means a potential decrease in the S&P 500 could weigh on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Inflation eye
The odds of a collapse in the S&P 500 could increase sharply if Thursday’s US consumer price index (CPI) Printing hotter than expected. Such a result combined with the recent weakness of the labor market may revive fear of stagflation-the worst case for risk-active-rest puts further pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The median forecast of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) In August 2025 an increase of 2.9% over the year (not seasonally adjusted)According to the fact. If this estimate is true, it will be the highest annual increase since January 2025, when CPI reached 3.0% and well above Fed’s 2% target. In addition, this figure of 2.9% would surpass the back of the rear-end twelve-month inflation of 2.6%.
More important is, the median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonal adjusted) For the central CPI, which excludes food and energy, is 3.1%.
BTC, ETH Settings are already Partic Bearish
The 25-Delta risk reversals, which were tied to dismissed Bitcoin and Etra Settings, were negative out to the December outlet, according to the data source Amberdata. In other words, short and almost dated BTC and ETH set the traded with a prize for calls, reflecting a bias for protection of the disadvantage.
A put option protects the buyer from a decrease in the value of the underlying asset. A call gives an asymmetrical bullish exposure. The 25-Delta risk conversion involves the simultaneous purchase of a put option and sale of a call or vice versa.
According to Options Insights’ founder, Imran Lakha, Put Bias in BTC is probably due to institutions that place long -term hedges. Streams have continued to trend lower on the over-the-counter tech platform paradigm.
“Flows again contained [ETH] September 26, 4K set, lifted up to 73V, ”noted paradigm.
XRP is indecisive, DODE looks north
While BTC’s converted head-and-shoulder breakout suggests a strong bullish direction, XRP’s price action occurs indecisive.
The payments-focused cryptocurrency remains locked in a falling triangle and continues to act within the Ichimoku cloud. Together, these indicators suggest a period of consolidation and uncertainty.
A breakout from the triangle can invite a stronger purchase pressure that could potentially lead to a $ 3.38 re-test, swing high from August 8th. That said, the falling triangle is generally considered a bearish pattern in itself. This is because the downward trend line that connects lower heights indicates that sellers are gradually becoming stronger and can soon penetrate the horizontal support level.
When we talk about DOGE, it has reintroduced the Bullish Trendline from June -low, catching sellers on the wrong side of the market. In addition, prices are crossed to Bullish Territory over the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests the possibility of a test of the July height of 28.76 cents.
However, the traders still have to look after a potentially rising wedge function in the S&P 500 futures, as a turn can hood gains in DOGE and weigh its prismomentum.
