The hidden reason bitcoin didn’t rally when gold and silver went berserk

Bitcoins BTC$75,914.07 Price action looked strangely sluggish early last month, even as traditional assets such as precious metals and stocks pushed to new highs.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency repeatedly failed to clear the $90,000 level — a stall that, in hindsight, foreshadowed the recent sharp selloff to $75,000.

At the time, traders blamed everything from a flight to safer assets and fading crypto demand to churn in spot ETF flows and month-end positioning. But some analysts say the real story was visible well before prices broke — sitting in plain sight in the swap order books.

According to Keith Alan, co-founder of trade analyst firm Material Indicators, order book data showed persistent sell-side pressure below $90,000 that consistently stifled upward momentum even when broader market conditions appeared supportive.

Posting on X, Alan said that Material Indicators’ FireCharts tool showed repeated waves of visible selling liquidity appearing just above spot prices, effectively holding bitcoin near the lower end of its range.

He described the behavior as a form of “liquidity herding”, where large orders shape market behavior by pushing the price towards levels that benefit the dominant participant.

Think of it as a crowded auction where a very large player controls the room. By placing large sell orders where everyone can see them, buying appears risky. As buyers hesitate, the price drifts sideways or lower, allowing the player to quietly accumulate at more favorable levels.

This tactic does not rely on news or fundamentals. It uses the order book itself to influence behavior – and it often appears around options expiration, when keeping the price within a specific range can reduce losses or improve payouts for large traders.

Meanwhile, order book data showed a tight cluster of bids building between about $85,000 and $87,500. This zone repeatedly absorbed selling pressure and acted as a short-term floor during bitcoin’s consolidation phase.

“If that support held, it was seen as a potential base for another attempt higher,” Alan said at the time. “But once it breaks, things can quickly relax.”

That warning proved prescient. When bitcoin finally slipped below the lower end of this bid cluster, selling accelerated rapidly as thin liquidity reinforced each move. The collapse marked a decisive failure of the range that had contained prices for weeks.

Bitcoin tested lows near $74,000-$76,000 over the weekend, highlighting a fragile battle between dip buyers and forced sellers in a thin market.

BTC in “bearadise”

Meanwhile, Alan had previously warned that a monthly close below around $87,500 – the opening level for 2026 – would represent a clear technical failure. He referred to such a scenario as a move into “Bearadise,” short for a phase where downward momentum feeds on itself as confidence erodes.

Large players influencing short-term price action through liquidity placement is not new to crypto markets.

Whales and high-frequency traders have long used visible order book depth to shape expectations and have often caught smaller traders on the wrong side of the move.

In retrospect, the same order book dynamics that kept bitcoin stuck below $90,000 also made it vulnerable when support gave way.