Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is slipping into a weaker market structure as the stable supply that supported prices earlier this year gives way to reduced demand and defensive positioning.
In a recent note, CryptoQuant wrote that the core demand wave of the cycle has already passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, buying by financials evaporating and Strategy’s buying falling to year-lows.
This does not imply an imminent collapse, CryptoQuant claims, but it does mean that the upside is becoming increasingly limited, with rallies likely to stall below the 365-day moving average until a new wave of demand emerges.
Polymarket traders position themselves around this weakness, assigning the highest probability to a move towards 85,000 and giving almost no weight to upside scenarios.
Glassnode adds that short-term holders are realizing losses at their fastest pace since the FTX period, ETF flows remain negative and derivatives markets have shifted into full risk-off mode, with options traders loading up on puts and implied volatility rising.
Against that backdrop, Glassnode points to the Active Investor cost basis near $88,600 as the market’s next critical test.
A sustained move below this level would put recent active investors at a loss for the first time this cycle and signal that bearish momentum is taking control. The next support is at the True Market Mean around $82,000, which Glassnode describes as the point where a mild bearish phase could give way to a bear market structure similar to 2022 and 2023.
The coming weeks will show if buyers can assert themselves, or if support recedes and the decline becomes more entrenched.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 after briefly slipping below $90,000 earlier this week, leaving the market on edge as it searches for support.
ETH: Ether is trading around $3,038, down modestly on the day as it continues to track Bitcoin’s broader defensive tone.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,067 after touching an intraday high of $4,132 as risk aversion sweeps through the markets.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Thursday as a strong Nvidia earnings report boosted chip shares and lifted the Nikkei 225 by 3.7%
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Samourai Wallet co-founder Bill Hill sentenced to 4 years in prison for unlicensed money transfer (CoinDesk)
- New Hampshire Unveils $100 Million Bitcoin Collateralized Municipal Bond (Decrypt)
- Bullish swings to third-quarter profit after options add, US spot trade (CoinDesk)
