It turns out that the polyming field is a crystal ball that can predict certain events with almost 90% accuracy, according to a dune dashboard prepared by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough.
McCullough studied polymarket’s historical data and removed markets with probabilities over 90% or less than 10% after the results were already known, but not yet settled, to keep the analysis accurate, according to a Dune Dashboard resume.
The polyme field overestimates a bit, but consistently event visibility across most intervals, potentially due to bias such as the acquisition of bias, herd mentality, low liquidity and participant preference for high-risk bets, found McCullough’s research.
Long -term markets, those who ask bettors to consider an event far out, look more accurate because they include many results that are clearly unlikely, making predictions easier, McCullough explained in an interview with the Polymarket’s The Oracle Blog.
McCullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom becoming president (a question of $ 54 million in volume) during the last election to show that prolonged polyming markets often include obviously predictable results that news clearly does not win, increasing the platform’s accuracy numbers for these long -term predictions.
In contrast, head-to-head sports markets that have fewer extreme results, such as long-shot presidential candidates, and a more balanced distribution, a clearer representation of predictable accuracy, found McCullough showing remarkable improvements in accuracy when events take place and reveal periodic accuracy.
Sport is a growing sector for the polyming field, with nearly $ 4.5 billion in collective volume focusing on the results of NBA, MLB, Champions League and the Premier League final, according to Data Portal Polymarket Analytics.
McCullough’s conclusions about the accuracy of the polymarket are probably of interest to Ottawa, where the polyme field shows that the new liberal party of Canada leader Mark Carney now has a significant lead over his conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, even more than what Poll Agggregators show.
