- Gartner’s new report predicts that PC sales will decline by 10.4% this year
- The rising cost of RAM may make “low-margin startups unviable”
- The analyst firm predicts: “Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 PC segment to disappear by 2028”
For some time, there’s been a growing weight of evidence that buying a PC now, rather than waiting, is a very smart idea to avoid further RAM-driven price increases with desktops and laptops—and a new prediction from Gartner adds to that pile.
In a new report from the analyst firm (which was spotted by VGC), Gartner observes that ‘entry-level PCs are facing obsolescence’ due to the high cost of RAM, which is expected to peak this year at 23% of the total bill of materials for a PC (on average) – up from 16% in 2025.
The parts list, abbreviated as parts list, is the price of all the components that make up a PC. (From the CPU and GPU plus memory, to the SSD and motherboard, plus all the other accessories such as fans, connectors, the power supply and the case or chassis itself).
Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, notes, “This sharp increase is removing vendors’ ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops unviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 PC segment to disappear by 2028.”
Atwal further predicts that: “Additionally, rising AI PC prices will delay the expected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028.”
Gartner estimates that PC shipments will fall 10.4% in 2026 compared to last year as the market weakens (and phone shipments will also fall to 8.4%, we’re told).
By the end of 2026, the analyst firm predicts a 130% increase in RAM and SSD costs, which will increase the supply prices of PCs by an estimated 17% compared to 2025, Gartner believes – a big increase.
Analysis: steepest contraction in PC shipments in over a decade
So this won’t just be a low-end PC issue, and it makes perfect sense that the higher end of the market will also take a hit from increased RAM costs (as well as storage). These units have more breathing room relative to their overall cost to obviously make hikes less impactful.
Still, the broad prediction that higher-priced AI (Copilot+) laptops will lose sales momentum this year and next, and not recover until 2028, parallels the disappearing act that seems to be happening with sub-$500 laptops and desktops.
It’s a believable enough prediction, unfortunately, and while these budget PCs aren’t going away entirely, I’d bet money on them being very thinner on the ground as 2026 rolls on. HP has already said that the cost of RAM has skyrocketed for its laptops, and in fact, the manufacturer told us that the portion that system memory takes out of the total bill of materials has doubled over the course of a quarter. It’s a scary revelation, frankly, and one that more than supports the idea Gartner is putting forth here.
Those who feel they may need a new laptop in the near future may therefore be advised to start shopping for one now – especially if they are looking towards the budget end of the market.
There is of course another view. Instead of upgrading, people just want to stick with their existing PC for longer.
As Atwal notes, “This is the steepest decline in device shipments seen in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of available devices, causing buyers to hold onto devices for longer, fundamentally changing upgrade cycles.”
Gartner theorizes that waiting for PC prices to settle down will likely mean that the average life of a device will be extended by about 20% for consumers by the end of the year (and 15% for business buyers). Of course, this could mean people holding on to outdated laptops running Windows 10, with no updates in place (after extended support expires in October 2026) and a number of security risks therein.
No matter how you look at it, the outlook for the PC market is pretty bleak.
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