The illegal invasion of Israel and America against Iran may have created a wave of excitement among the warmongers sitting in the corridors of power in Washington and Tel Aviv, but it seems to be pushing the Middle East towards a conflagration that could engulf other parts of the world.
The conflict has exposed the hypocrisy of the Western world, in addition to calling into question the credibility of European leaders who promptly threw their support behind Israel, which has been accused of committing war crimes in the occupied territories of Palestine and elsewhere in the region. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Macron and the much-lauded new leader of the West, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, all issued statements suggesting that the aggression was not perpetrated by Washington and Tel Aviv, but by Tehran. While their statements expressed concern over Iranian attacks against Arab states, they failed to comment on the decimation of Iranian civilians, including over 160 school children.
Critics believe that the US has once again resorted to outright lies to justify this invasion, with US President Donald Trump and his jaded aides claiming that Iran was a threat to the security of the sole superpower and its allies. This was the same excuse previously used by George Bush Junior and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair during the Iraq War. Reports from international institutions and global independent bodies proved that their claims were completely fabricated, which were used to get hold of Iraqi oil.
The Trump administration has used the Iranian nuclear program as an excuse to impose this illegal invasion, in a sense refuting its own claim to dismantle Iranian nuclear infrastructure during the 12-day war last year. Many feel that it is actually Iran’s resources that the US and its companies dream of capturing. There has been enormous pressure on the Iranian government to open its markets to vultures in the capitalist world, which Iran has always resisted. The military strength of the Islamic Republic is said to be the other factor that prompts Israel and the United States to invade the country and plunge it into death and destruction.
To achieve this goal, Washington and Tel Aviv are trying to implement another regime change, which could prove to be a recipe for disaster not only for the region, but also for the world’s only superpower. The US managed to install compliant leaders in Libya and Syria by indirectly interfering in the affairs of these countries or by conducting limited intervention in the case of Syria. But in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US and its allies had to resort to ruthless force to effect regime change. Despite this, they were unable to support new governments.
Sending troops to these countries proved disastrous. The United States and its allies lost thousands of soldiers and thousands more were maimed or wounded. Washington also had to spend about $8 trillion on the two conflicts, according to the Watson Institute of Brown University. The end result: a humiliating withdrawal from the two countries.
In all these countries, local ethnic and sectarian entities were encouraged by the United States to ally with the occupation forces or anti-government elements. This exacerbated the divisions in these societies, with different sections still fighting each other in countries such as Libya and Syria.
It appears that Washington is also trying to apply the same formula in Iran, which has multiple ethnic and sectarian fault lines. The Trump administration has reportedly been in contact with Kurds and other ethnic groups who have previously faced oppression and repression from the Iranian government and appear poised to fight the theocratic system. Washington may also seek to engage other non-Persian entities in Iran to weaken the government.
Baloch in the Iranian east may also be a potential collaborator for the invading forces of Israel and the United States. Dissident Iranian elements who settled in the US and other parts of the world may also use this opportunity to stage a comeback and lead the anti-government struggle in an attempt to topple the Iranian government
But such an American approach would spell disaster for the entire region and might not go down well with some of America’s allies. Any attempt to empower Iranian Kurds risks rejuvenating the wishes of Kurds in Iraq, Turkey and Syria to create their own homeland, infuriating Baghdad, Damascus and Ankara, who are somehow American friends. Support for the Iranian Baloch would enrage Islamabad, which has historically been a close ally of the United States.
The US can bomb Iran mercilessly, but such airstrikes would still not cause regime change. It would require ground troops, risk American lives and force Iranians to wage a guerrilla war. Such a situation would jeopardize the popularity of Trump, who won the election on a promise of non-intervention.
Although parts of Iranian society are not happy with Iran’s theocratic government, it is equally possible that the majority of Iranians may end up disdaining the very idea of the intervention and cooperation with the enemies. And while some ethnic entities such as the Kurds and Baloch seek independence from the central authority, there are other ethnic entities within the Islamic Republic that share the same sect as most Persian-speaking Iranians. Despite having different ethnic backgrounds, these national units share the same name. Therefore, they would not be receptive to the idea of destroying a country that is considered a protector of their faith.
Nevertheless, Israeli and American moves appear to be sowing the seeds of chaos in the region, with far-reaching consequences that could include disruptions to air and sea transport, as well as skyrocketing prices for energy and other commodities. Their desire to see the Balkanization of Iran would plunge the country into a protracted civil war which could cause massive displacement, killing and destruction of infrastructure. Europe has seen a 35% increase in gas prices. Oil prices are also seeing an upward spiral, while the global chain and supply face the risk of major disruption.
If the situation is not normalized, it will also create a migration crisis for the region and Europe. Therefore, American allies in the region and Europe must jump into action to prevent Israel and America from sowing the seeds of chaos in the region.
The writer is a freelance journalist who can be contacted at: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pakinomist.tv’s editorial policy.
Originally published in The News
