By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Oh, bitcoin price pattern that predicted the last and deepest phases of previous bear markets has reappeared.
In mid-November 2018, CoinDesk discussed a bearish flip in long-term averages on a chart that aggregates three days of price action in each candle. It warned that a similar incident in 2014 exacerbated the bear market, and within a week bitcoin crashed to below $4,500 from $6,000, extending the decline from a peak of around $20,000.
Cut to April 2022. The same pattern occurred with the same result. BTC’s bear market deepened, with prices rising to $17,500 from $32,000, having already fallen from the late 2021 record near $70,000.
Now the pattern is back again (check the Technical Analysis section). While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, history calls for caution. Some savvy traders are preparing for a deeper break below $60,000.
Bitcoin recently traded near $66,100, down 3% in 24 hours. Other major tokens and the CoinDesk 20 index lost even more. Still, US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $1 billion in three days.
“This breadth in demand signals absorption rather than speculation,” Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said in an email. “On-chain data reinforces the shift: wallets with more than 10,000 Bitcoin have accumulated through the recent pullback from the $70,000 region, suggesting long-term holders are stepping in as supply thins.”
Still, ETF flows must continue to lift BTC sustainably higher, Kalchev said.
In traditional markets, oil prices continue to be supported by uncertainty between the US and Iran and the potential for an escalation over the weekend. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 27 February at 8:30am: US PPI MoM for January estimated 0.3% (Prev 0.5%); Core PPI MoM estimated 0.3% (Previous 0.7%)
- 27 February at 8:30am: US PPI YoY for January estimated 2.9% (Prev 3%)
- 27 February at 8:30 AM: Canada’s 4Q YoY GDP Growth (Prev 2.6%); QoQ (Previous 0.6%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- 1inch DAO votes to allocate 2,000,000 USDC from its treasury to the Aave V3 market on Ethereum to generate returns. Voting ends March 1.
- Unlocks
- February 28: Grass (GRASS) to unlock 13.15% of its circulating supply, worth $10.09 million.
- February 28: Jupiter (JUP) unlocks 7.94% of its circulating supply, worth $39.34 million.
- March 1: to unlock 1.13% of its circulating supply, worth $40.97 million.
- The token is launched
- February 27: Fabric Protocol (ROBO) to list on Binance, Bybit, Bitget, KuCoin and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is unchanged from 16 ET Thursday at $67,423.09 (24 hours: -0.95%)
- ETH is down 0.89% to $2,012.51 (24 hours: -2%)
- CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 1,968.26 (24 hours: -2.49%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps to 2.89%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.006% (-6.5799% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.74
- Gold futures are unchanged at $5,191.50
- Silver futures are up 2.82% at $90.05
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.16% at 58,850.27
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.95% at 26,630.54
- The FTSE rose 0.39% to 10,888.78
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 6,161.33
- The DJIA closed Thursday up 0.03% at 49,499.20
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,908.86
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.18% to 22,878.38
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.1% at 34,501.96
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.4% at 3,772.90
- US 10-year Treasury is down 3 bps at 3.987%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.28% at 6,900.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.19% at 25,033.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.48% at 49,294.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.49% (-0.11%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02973 (-1.06%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,055 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.31
- Total Fees: 3.43 BTC / $232,808
- CME Futures open interest: 107,780 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 12.8 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.46%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows BTC’s price swings on a three-day timeframe in candlestick format from 2024-2025 and 2018-2022. Each candle aggregates the price action seen over three days or 72 hours.
- On this chart, moving averages of the 50 and 200 candles are crossed bearish.
- Similar patterns led to deeper slippages in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $181.06 (-1.57%), unchanged in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $87.21 (+4.90%), unchanged in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.94 (-3.90%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.73 (-0.49%), unchanged in pre-market
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.45 (-1.40%), +15.98% at $9.80
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.09 (+0.06%), +0.12% at $17.11
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (-0.55%), -1.50% at $17.71
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.44 (-0.10%), -0.77% at $10.36
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $42.17 (-0.40%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.45 (-1.69%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $133.40 (-1.66%), +0.62% at $134.23
- Strive (ASST): closed at $8.19 (-4.10%), +0.24% at $8.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.21 (-3.09%), +0.55% at $7.25
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.76 (-7.87%), +0.22% at $0.76
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (-3.39%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $254.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.81 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $6.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.68 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.72 million
Source: Farside Investors
