Asian shares posted their best day in months and S&P 500 futures rose after the president said he would address the nation Wednesday night with an “important update” on Iran. Oil pared losses as the UAE reportedly prepares to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.
Bitcoin traded at $67,950 on Tuesday, up 0.2% over 24 hours, as a wave of optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict lifted risk assets across the board. Ether rose 1.6% to $2,100, its strongest daily move in weeks.
XRP rose 0.5% to $1.34, dogecoin added 0.5% to $0.09 and BNB gained 0.4% to $616. Solana’s SOL was the notable laggard, falling 0.7% to $83.14 and extending weekly losses to 8.7%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4%, its best session since the war began, with nearly 10 stocks rising for every one that fell. Asian tech rose 6.5%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix with more than 9% each. S&P 500 futures rose, with the index posting its biggest one-day gain since May.
The catalyst was Trump telling reporters that he expected the war to end within two to three weeks and that a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite to ending the conflict. He announced a national address on Wednesday at 9:00 p.m
Eastern to provide what he called an “important update.” Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told the EU council president that Tehran has “the necessary will to end this war” but expects guarantees against future aggression.
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the United States and allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, making it the first Gulf state to enter the conflict as a combatant. Brent oil rebounded above $105 after Tuesday’s drop.
The crypto market’s reaction was muted relative to equities, a pattern that has persisted for weeks. Bitcoin has spent the entire war grinding between $65,000 and $73,000, while stocks swing wildly on every headline. The gap between crypto’s sideways range and the stock market’s correction-level write-down remains the most notable divergence in the cross-asset picture.
There were reasons for cautious optimism beyond geopolitics. Morgan Stanley received approval for a bitcoin ETF that charged just 14 basis points, 11 below the category average. The product opens access to Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors managing $6.2 trillion, a channel that has not previously had direct bitcoin ETF exposure.
Alex Blume, CEO of Two Prime, pointed to three catalysts that could drive bitcoin higher in Q2 – the Morgan Stanley ETF, continued success of the Strategy’s STRC preferred stock product to fund bitcoin purchases, and a quick resolution to the Iran war.
“A lot of market uncertainty may soon be resolved,” Blume said in an email to CoinDesk. “Together with new purchasing power, a strong second quarter can be ahead.”
Gold rose for a fourth straight day to near $4,700, although its nearly 12% drop in March was its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The precious metal’s continued weakness during an active war continues to break historical precedent.
Whether Trump’s Wednesday speech produces an actual off-ramp or just another headline in a month that has been full of them will determine whether this rally lasts. As one analyst put it: “I am not convinced in the longer term. Investors will soon have concrete evidence that the end of the war is in sight.”
