Bitcoin has so far jumped above $90,000, up 15% from its Nov. 21 low of around $80,000, with price-finding support across three key cost bases: the 2024 annual volume-weighted cost base, the True Market Mean and the average US spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) cost base.
These metrics help identify where investors are most likely to defend positions during drawdowns. The support area proved to be crucial as it matched closely with the average acquisition prices of several investor cohorts.
First, the true market mean represents the average purchase price on the bitcoin chain held by active market participants. It focuses on coins that have moved recently and filters out long-term dormant supply, therefore reflecting the cost basis of investors most likely to trade.
During this pullback, the True Market Mean sat near $81,000 and acted as clear support. Notably, bitcoin first moved above this level in October 2023 and had not traded below it since, reinforcing its importance as a structural bull market threshold.
Second, the US spot ETF cost basis reflects the weighted average price at which bitcoin has flowed into US listed spot ETFs. This is calculated by Glassnode using the combined daily ETF inflow with the market price.
The average cost basis is currently around $83,844, according to Glassnode, and bitcoin bounced off this level once again, which it also did during the rate-driven selloff in April.
The third metric, the 2024 Annual Cost Basis, tracks the average price at which coins acquired in 2024 were withdrawn from exchanges. CoinDesk Research has shown a pattern that annual cohort cost bases tend to support during bull markets.
In this case, the 2024 cost base near $83,000, according to checkonchain, provided further confirmation of demand, and was again also seen as support during the April correction.
These metrics highlight the depth of demand for support in the $80,000 region.
