Bitcoin’s weak October could help create the conditions for a year-end rebound – the so-called “Santa Claus Rally” that has historically lifted crypto markets in December.
Data from Coinglass shows that bitcoin has ended six of the past eight Decembers in the green, with gains of between 8% and 46%, indicating a consistent seasonal tailwind for the world’s largest digital asset.
“We are observing a shift from panic selling to strategic accumulation by long-term holders… this recovery trajectory, bolstered by expected Fed rate cuts and institutional adoption, is positioning the market for a robust Santa rally,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research in a Telegram announcement.
A “Santa Claus rally” is when bitcoin tends to rise in December as traders position themselves for year-end optimism and light holiday trading amplifies price movements. Historically, it has finished the month higher in most years, sometimes with strong double-digit gains.
The pattern reflects market seasonality, with prices following recurring calendar trends driven by investor psychology, tax planning and portfolio adjustments. In crypto, it usually signals a shift from profit-taking to renewed accumulation as traders look ahead to the new year, setting the tone for risk appetite and liquidity across the broader digital asset market.
Tariff dividend
Analysts point to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to float a $2,000 stimulus check based on tariff dividends, which some observers said could be reminiscent of the COVID-era rally
“President Trump sent a new stimulus check in the form of a $2000 tariff dividend directly to the American people, in addition to a new 50-year mortgage to improve housing affordability,” said Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus.
“The tariff yield is reminiscent of the covid stimulus checks that were a direct and effective money printing stimulus, while the ultra-long term mortgages will improve housing affordability while adding extra capital input to the system,” Fan added.
Both of these moves should be seen as new forms of liquidity relief and should be positive for risk assets in general and treated as such for today, Fan explained.
New bind regime
Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of volatility, not the kind driven by meme speculation or retail mania, but by deeper structural shifts in liquidity and leverage, some believe.
“Bitcoin’s volatility in 2026 is likely to remain structurally elevated, albeit for different reasons than in previous cycles,” Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of SynFutures, said in an email. “What we’re seeing now is the maturation of Bitcoin’s volatility. It’s less about speculative hype and more about how institutional flows, liquidity conditions and derivative positioning interact within a tighter global financial framework.”
“From a macro lens, the two variables to look at are global liquidity and real interest rates. Bitcoin’s historical 0.6 – 0.7 correlation with US liquidity indicators (such as the Fed’s balance sheet and M2 growth) suggests that if global central banks halt easing or re-tighten in 2026 amid tariff-driven inflation and BIS rates, swings could quickly re-emerge,” Lin added.
The setup in 2025 looks the same. Bitcoin has fallen approx. 3% so far in November after a volatile October, but on-chain data points to the accumulation of smaller holders while large wallets remain on the sidelines.
Whales with more than 10,000 BTC have been net sellers for three months and continue to liquidate positions established during the ETF inflow in the first quarter. Meanwhile, smaller investors with under 1,000 BTC have been quietly adding to their stacks, offsetting some of that selling pressure.
If historical seasonality holds, and with Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend tying in with another potential liquidity jolt, crypto markets could once again ride the well-worn path of December. One of quiet skepticism gives way to euphoria at the end of the year.
