Bitcoin rose from $88,000 in Asian hours to above $90,000 in European afternoon hours on Monday, but reasons for caution remain as US markets take the baton.
BTC has tended to find early support in Asia and Europe hours in recent weeks, only to fade as US investors return to the market.
This dynamic has made the US session a key test of whether rallies can last. Previous pushes above major levels, including $90,000, have often been reversed during New York hours as hedges have been added and profits taken — often leading to hundreds of millions in liquidations mid-flip trade.
Derivative positioning shows risk build-up alongside the price. Bitcoin futures open interest rose steadily as BTC pushed higher on Monday, climbing toward $60 billion across major venues, according to CoinGlass data.
Binance, CME and Bybit all saw notable gains, suggesting that new leverage is entering the market rather than short covering alone.
This dynamic has become familiar in recent weeks with price strength just outside US hours followed by heavier selling as US traders come online.
The concern now is not the breakout itself, but whether the rally is supported by spot demand or increasingly dependent on leveraged futures.
Open interest rising along with the price doesn’t automatically signal trouble, but it raises the stakes. If the move holds, leverage can amplify the upside. If momentum stalls, crowded positioning leaves the market vulnerable to rapid pullbacks as long positions unwind.
The risk for bulls is that a failure to hold $90,000 during US hours could reinforce the market’s recent pattern of lower highs and rapid pullbacks.
A sustained move above the level, on the other hand, would mark a break from the sell-the-open behavior that has defined much of December.
