Decentralized betting platform Polymarket has listed contracts tied to Volmex’s bitcoin and ether volatility indices, opening the door for everyone to bet on market volatility this year.
The two contracts, “What Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index Hit in 2026?” and “What Will the Ethereum Volatility Index Hit in 2026?” went live on Monday at 4:13 p.m. ET.
These contracts pay “Yes” if there is a one-minute “candle” for Volmex’s 30-day implied volatility indices linked to bitcoin and ether spikes to or exceeds the preset target by December 31, 11:59 p.m. Otherwise, the contracts settle “No.” A one minute candle is a price chart that shows an asset’s price action, the open, high, low and close, over just 60 seconds. It mimics the shape of a candle with its “body” and “wicks”.
So if you’re buying “Yes” stocks, you’re essentially bullish on volatility, which basically means you’re expecting a more turbulent market. On the flip side, buying “No” stocks means you expect stability. In both cases, you are betting on the degree of price fluctuation, not the direction.
Polymarket’s new contracts make volatility trading accessible to everyone, offering a simple, direct way to play a game historically dominated by institutions and large traders with abundant capital. Traditionally, these large players have used complex multi-step options or volatility futures to profit from anticipated changes in volatility.
“Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, launching contracts on Volmex’s BVIV and EVIV indices is an important milestone for Volmex and crypto derivatives in general,” Cole Kennelly, founder and CEO of Volmex Labs, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.
“This partnership brings institutional-grade BTC and ETH volatility benchmarks into the simple, intuitive prediction market format, making it easier for traders and investors to express views on crypto implied volatility,” Kennelly added.
Early trading in these contracts showed a 35% chance that bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) will double to 80% from its current 40% level this year. The Ether market showed almost similar pricing for volatility to rise to 90% from the current 50%.
Note that the correlation between bitcoin’s implied volatility and spot price has become largely negative since the debut of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US two years ago. This means that any pick-up in volatility is more likely to be accompanied by a spot price decline than a rally.
