The current state of the crypto market is unfolding almost exactly as historical patterns suggest, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures
That is why he was skeptical of the recent overly optimistic bottom calls. “When people thought that the bottom would be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Thursday.
Predictions that bitcoin would bottom out at $60,000 and immediately resume its rise struck him as premature. “It also seems a bit premature.”
While he stopped short of predicting another year-long decline, Terpin believes the market is likely to face “one more pain point” in what he describes as a fragile environment. He suggests that bitcoin could revisit levels of $50,000 or even $40,000 before forming a durable bottom.
The halving is central to bitcoin’s design because it halves the reward miners receive for validating transactions roughly every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created.
This built-in supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded large bull markets as reduced new supply meets steady or rising demand.
The halving mechanism slows bitcoin’s rate of inflation over time, ultimately limiting the total supply to 21 million coins and reinforcing its positioning as digital gold.
“We’re exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events.
One of the most reliable elements of past cycles has been the crude timing of the bubble top and subsequent relaxation, he argued.
“The urban market emerged in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, adding that the speculative deflation phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”
Terpin draws a close parallel to the last cycle. “The heights, the bubble that pops, was November 10, 2021,” he says. “The clues were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on November 10, 2022. Exactly one year to the day.”
Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026
