Trump shifts global blocs, China rises

ISLAMABAD:

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer landed in Beijing on Wednesday, marking the first visit by a British prime minister to China in eight years. The visit reflects a striking shift in diplomacy in the West at a time when the US-led alliance system is under pressure following President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Starmer, who had previously described China as a national security threat, is now seeking cooperation with President Xi Jinping – a move that underscores growing uncertainty among Washington’s traditional allies.

The British leader is not alone. In recent months, leaders from France, Ireland and Canada have also traveled to Beijing, while the German chancellor is expected to visit China next month. These diplomatic overtures would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, when Western capitals were largely aligned to confront Beijing on trade, technology and human rights.

The diplomatic upheaval coincides with a major economic adjustment. Earlier this week, the 27-nation EU and India signed a long-awaited free trade deal, commonly called the “mother of all deals”.

Negotiations on the EU-India Free Trade Agreement began in 2007 but collapsed in 2013 due to sharp differences over tariffs, market access, intellectual property rights and regulatory standards. For over a decade, the agreement remained frozen, a victim of mistrust and competing economic priorities.

Trump’s return to power changed the calculus.

His aggressive economic nationalism, heavy reliance on tariffs and transactional view of alliances pushed Brussels and New Delhi to revive negotiations and strike a deal historic not only in scope but also in symbolism. The agreement, which covers nearly two billion people and about a quarter of the global economy, is as much a geostrategic statement as a trade pact.

It signals a broader shift: America’s traditional allies are no longer waiting for Washington to set the rules. Instead, they build parallel economic and strategic frameworks to protect their interests.

Both Europe and India have felt the impact of Trump’s policies. Washington imposed tariffs on Indian exports of up to 50 percent on certain goods, while accusing New Delhi of exploiting access to the US market and continuing to buy Russian oil. Trump has also repeatedly threatened the EU with punitive tariffs, questioned NATO’s relevance and even floated controversial ideas like taking over Greenland.

The agreement between the EU and India can therefore best be understood as a strategic safeguard against American unpredictability. By reducing dependence on the US market, both sides hope to build economic resilience in an era where globalization is increasingly shaped by power politics rather than multilateral consensus.

Washington’s response was swift and sharp. The US commerce secretary called the deal “foolish” and questioned how the EU could sign a free trade deal with India while New Delhi continues to import Russian energy. The criticism reflects growing anxiety in Washington that its allies are no longer aligning their economic choices with US strategic priorities.

The deal is unlikely to be taken lightly by the Trump administration. Trump’s worldview treats trade as a zero-sum game, and any deal that dilutes American leverage could invite retaliation through tougher tariffs or political pressure.

Yet the larger story extends beyond trade.

Trump’s return has accelerated a global realignment that was already underway. Countries once firmly entrenched in the US-led order are increasingly exploring alternative partnerships. Ironically, many Western states are now engaging China, the very power that has long been portrayed as the main challenger to the rules-based international system.

Ideology is giving way to pragmatism. Trump’s policies have injected deep uncertainty into the global system. Allies who once relied on Washington for economic stability and security guarantees now fear being targeted by the same “America First” agenda.

The agreement between the EU and India is thus a symptom of a deeper transformation. The post-Cold War order, built on American leadership, liberal trade and multilateral institutions, is gradually giving way to a fragmented landscape of overlapping alliances and competing economic blocs.

Trump did not create this shift, but he has undeniably accelerated it. By weaponizing tariffs and redefining alliances as business contracts, he forced America’s partners to rethink their strategies. In this new world, alliances are no longer permanent and interests are no longer shaped by ideology. They are driven by necessity.

As Western leaders engage Beijing and major powers enter into mega-deals without Washington’s blessing, the global order has not collapsed, but it has been fundamentally reconfigured. And in this reconfiguration, American allies are no longer waiting for approval from Washington; they write their own rules with China emerging as a key beneficiary.

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