The Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo will end the excitement when it announces the winner on Friday at. 11:00 (0900 GMT).
The background is gloomy: The number of armed conflicts around the world involving at least one state has never been as high as in 2024, since Sweden’s Uppsala University started its global conflict database in 1946.
Trump has repeatedly said he deserves the prestigious award to resolve “eight conflicts,” but experts predict that he will not be the selection of the committee – at least not this year.
“No, it won’t be Trump this year,” said Swedish Professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert on international affairs AFP.
“But maybe next year? At that time, the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis,” he added.
Numerous experts consider Trump’s “peace creatures” claim to be exaggerated and express concern about the consequences of his “America First” policies.
Donald Trump insists that he deserves the award for resolving ‘eight conflicts’, a claim that experts doubt.
“In addition to trying to mediate peace for Gaza, we have seen policies that actually go against intentions and what is written in the will of (Alfred) Nobel, especially to promote international cooperation, nations Brotherhood and disarmament,” said Nina Graeger, who leads the Peace Research Institute in Oslo.
For Graeger, the list of Trump’s actions that are not in line with the ideals of the Nobel Peace Prize is long.
Trump has withdrawn the United States from international organizations and multilateral treaties, launched trade war against both allies and enemies, threatened to take Greenland from Denmark by force, ordered the National Guard into US cities and attacked universities’ academic freedoms as well as freedom of expression.
“We take the complete picture into consideration,” explained Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chairman of the five-member committee, which awards the Peace Prize.
“The whole organization or the complete personality of this person matters, but what we are first and foremost is what they have actually achieved for peace,” he said.
Uncontroversial choice?
This year, 338 individuals and organizations have been nominated for the Peace Prize, where the list is kept secret for 50 years.
Tens of thousands of people are eligible to propose candidates, including legislators and cabinet members in all countries, former winners, certain university professors and Nobel Committee members.
The President of the Committee said the five members would take everything into consideration when they awarded the award
By 2024, the award went to Japan’s atomic bombing group Nihon Hidankyo for his efforts to ban nuclear weapons.
Without any clear favorite this year, several names have completed the rounds in Oslo ahead of Friday’s announcement.
Sudan’s emergency rooms – a network of volunteers who risk their lives to feed and help people endure war and famine 1 has been mentioned, as have Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny and Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Electricity Watchhund.
The Nobel Committee’s elections in recent years have shown “a return to several micro -things, somewhat closer to classic ideas of peace”, focusing on “human rights, democracy, freedom of press and women,” said Halvard Leira, the director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
Japan’s atomic bomb -survivor group Nihon Hidankyo won the 2024 prize for its efforts to ban nuclear weapons
“My lunch would probably just be for one not the controversial candidate this year,” he said.
The Nobel Committee could also choose to confirm its commitment to a world order that is currently being challenged by Trump by giving the award to the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, or a UN body such as its refugee agency UNHCR or Palestinian relief agency UNRWA.
It can also give nodded to international courts such as the International Court or the International Criminal Court or Champion Press freedoms currently under attack by giving it to the committee to protect journalists or journalists without borders.
But the committee could also do as it has done many times before and choose a completely unexpected winner.
