- President Trump has not decided which way to go, source says.
- Tehran prepares for military confrontation: Iranian official.
- Israeli, Arab officials doubt that airstrikes alone can topple Iran’s government.
US President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeting security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, although Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers.
Two US sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a nationwide protest movement earlier this month.
To do so, he looked at opportunities to target commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters confidence they could overrun government and security buildings, they said.
One of the US sources said the options discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike that would have a lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach US allies in the Middle East or their nuclear enrichment programs.
The second US source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on the course of action, including whether he will take the military route.
The arrival of a US aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s ability to potentially take military action after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that rather than bringing people to the streets, such strikes could weaken the movement.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, said that without major military defections, Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outmatched”.
The sources for this story requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Iran’s foreign office, the US Defense Department and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli prime minister’s office declined to comment.
Trump on Wednesday urged Iran to come to the table and strike a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future US strike would be more serious than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” bound for Iran.
This was reported by a senior Iranian official Reuters that Iran was “preparing for a military confrontation while making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington did not show openness to diplomacy, the official said.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a statement on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly outlined what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s past talking points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
Limits of air power
This was told by a senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States Reuters it Israel does not believe that airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic if that is Washington’s goal.
“If you want to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would “get a new leader who will replace him.”
Only a combination of external pressure and an organized domestic opposition could change Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Several U.S. intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government but without major ruptures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The Western source said they believed Trump’s aim appeared to be to bring about a change in leadership, rather than “toppling the regime”, an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where US intervention replaced the president without a comprehensive change of government.
Khamenei remains in control, but less visibly
At 86, Khamenei has withdrawn from day-to-day governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be living in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day leadership has shifted to individuals aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and large parts of the economy.
However, Khamenei retains ultimate authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy — meaning political change is very difficult until he leaves the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear impasse and ultimately open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they warned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that void, Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hardline rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken, the IRGC, the official said.
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favor containment rather than collapse — not out of sympathy for Tehran but out of fear that unrest in a nation of 90 million could spark instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A divided Iran could spiral into civil war, as it did after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, two Western diplomats warned, triggering an influx of refugees and disrupting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy choke point.
The biggest risk, warned analyst Vatanka, is fragmentation in “early-stage Syria,” with rival entities and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
Regional setback
The Gulf states – longtime US allies and hosts of major US bases – fear they would be the first targets of Iranian retaliation, which could include Iranian missiles or drone strikes by the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against an attack on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military action against Tehran.
“The US can pull the trigger,” said one of the Arab sources, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the US releases suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponize its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is an “abrasive erosion — elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession — that frays the system until it breaks,” analyst Vatanka said.
