The well-followed Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index briefly looked like it was recovering from the February 5 crash. It wasn’t.
The premium has now been negative for 40 days in a row, according to Coinglass data, marking the longest streak of readings below zero since 2023. The current reading stands at -0.0467%, barely changed from two weeks ago, when a sharp narrowing from -0.22% suggested US buyers had entered near the lows.
The index measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average. Coinbase is widely used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, so a sustained negative reading means US investors are consistently paying less than the rest of the world – either selling more aggressively or simply not showing up.
The previous record was around 30 days of continuous negative premium during the October 2025 draw. That streak was broken as a strong bounce brought US buyers back into the market. This time, the rejection came as bitcoin recovered as much as 15% from its February 5 intraday low. But the prize never followed.
This divergence shows that although the price reversed, the composition of the demand did not. Whatever buying took bitcoin back above $62,000 came from outside US trading hours, outside Coinbase’s order books, or both.
The one constructive read is that the premium has been progressively less negative since early February, creeping from -0.22% back towards -0.05%. It is improving, just not fast enough to turn positive, a threshold that historically coincides with sustained accumulation phases rather than relief rallies.
Interestingly, Google searches for “bitcoin zero” in the US hit record highs earlier this month, CoinDesk reported, although global search interest for the term remained flat.
Both signals point to US investors specifically losing conviction at a pace not seen elsewhere.
