Inflation returns to the center of attention this week, with a fresh influx of data likely to shape expectations for US interest rates and risk assets like bitcoin .
Thursday’s US core PCE reading for February and Friday’s March CPI release will test the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait to cut interest rates. Earlier this year, interest rate cuts looked almost certain. It has changed. At Polymarket, the odds of no rate cuts in 2026 rose from around 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that bitcoin has already “priced in a (US) recession” and has acted as a “canary in the coal mine”, falling under signals from financial conditions and forward-looking indicators.
Recent data complicates that view. The ISM Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside in March, suggesting the US economy may be more resilient to higher oil prices than in previous cycles.
After the release, market-based recession odds for this year dropped from about 37% to 28%.
As bitcoin has priced up a storm, Dragosch noted that the risk-reward ratio for bitcoin “is significantly skewed to the upside.” Still, an unexpected escalation of the war in the Middle East could bring about the priced-in storm.
What to see
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- 6 April at 12:00 p.m.: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) is hosting a recap and Ask Me Anything session (AMA) in March 2026 at X Spaces.
- April 8: Stable release of Stellar’s Yardstick protocol becomes available.
- April 9: Aerodrome’s Flying School ends and merges with Public Goods Fund to form Momentum Fund.
- April 9: Binance to migrate all DAI functionality to USDS.
- Macro
- 6 April at 09:00: US ISM Services PMI for March estimated 55 (previous 56.1)
- 7 April at 07.15: Weekly US ADP employment change (estimated 10,000)
- 7 April at 07.30: US durable goods orders for February estimated 04% (previously 0%)
- April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsbee joins a conversation about economic and monetary policy.
- 8 April at 04.00: Eurozone PPI YoY for February estimated -1.9% (Prev -2.1%); MoM estimated 0.5% (Previous 0.7%)
- 8 April at 13:00: FOMC minutes from the meeting release on 17-18 March.
- 9 April at 7:30 AM: US Core PCE Price Index MoM for February Estimated 0.4% (Prev 0.4%);
- 9 April at 07:30: US personal income MoM for February estimated 0.3% (Prev 0.4%); Personal consumption MoM estimated 0.5% (Previous 0.4%)
- April 9, at 07.30: US Q4 GDP Growth QoQ (Final) Estimated 0.7% (Prev 4.4%)
- 9 April at 7.30am: Initial US jobless claims for week ending April 4 estimated at 200,000 (previously 202,000)
- 9 April at 20.30: China CPI YoY for March estimated 1.2% (previous 1.3%) ; MoM (formerly 1%)
- 9 April at 20.30: China PPi YoY for March estimated 0.4% (previously -0.9%)
- April 10 at 7:30 a.m.: Canada’s unemployment rate for March (previously 6.7%)
- April 10 at 07.30: US CPI MoM for March estimated 0.9% (Prev 0.3%); Core CPI MoM estimated 0.3% (Previous 0.2%)
- April 10 at 07.30: US CPI YoY for March estimated 3.4% (Prev 2.4%); Core CPI YoY estimated 2.7% (previously 2.5%)
- April 10 at 10am: US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary April) estimated 52.5 (previous 53.3)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes and calls
- April 7: Kamino and xStocks host an X Spaces session on tokenization.
- Aave DAO votes to adjust oracle configurations, reduce liquidation thresholds and change interest models across its V2 markets to support their continued depreciation. Voting ends on April 6.
- The Decentraland DAO votes to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a 2030 definition of success and contingency plan. The proposal currently has the support of voters. Voting ends on April 6.
- Balancer DAO votes across two linked proposals to restructure operations with a reduced team and budget and to revamp tokenomics by halting BAL emissions, discontinuing veBAL, directing all fees to the treasury and offering a token buyback. Voting ends on April 7.
- CoW DAO votes 85 to set its solver reward budget at 50% of protocol revenue, splitting it between performance and new consistency rewards. The proposal has overwhelming support and ends on 7 April.
- ShapeShift DAO votes to cut DFC compensation, saving ~$24k/year in FOX. It clarifies roles and mandates annual renewals. Voting ends on April 8.
- Arbitrum DAO votes across two proposals to amend its audit program with a flexible adaptation framework and an AI security scanning pilot, and to transfer 6,000 ETH and inactive stablecoins to the Treasury Management Portfolio to generate returns. Voting ends on April 9.
- Unlocks
- April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply, worth $11.94 million.
- April 8: Stable (STABLE) to unlock 4.14% of its circulating value worth $23.97 million.
- April 9: Aptos to unlock 0.68% of its circulating supply worth $9.56 million.
- The token is launched
- April 9: OneFootball (OFC) token generation event takes place.
