As the Iran-US-Israel war rages across the region, a catastrophic environmental strain is emerging that threatens to undermine global climate goals.
In the middle of the war, a new analysis reveals that the first 14 days of the US-Israeli war against Iran released about 5.1 million tons of carbon dioxide, which is more than Iceland’s annual emissions.
The figure also roughly corresponds to the total annual production from the world’s 84 lowest emitting nations.
The researchers from the Climate and Community Institute carried out the analysis in collaboration with researchers from Lancaster University and the University of Energy and Natural Resources in Ghana.
The analysis marks the first overall assessment of the climate costs of the conflict.
The staggering figure is also confirmed by satellite data from Bloomberg Green and research consultancy Data Desk, which reports the significant increase in flaring and methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure across the region.
Building Destruction: The Hidden Coal Bomb
Contrary to the common perspective, the biggest contributor to wartime emissions is not the burning of oil fields or military aircraft, but the destruction of civilian infrastructure.
As reported by the Iranian Red Crescent Society, around 2,000 civilian buildings, including 16,191 residential units, 3,384 commercial properties, 77 medical centers and 69 schools, have been destroyed or faced major damage.
This total destruction accounts for 2.4 million tons of CO2, researchers calculated.
Oil Infrastructure Attack: Black Rain and Burning Skies
The most visually notable effect has been the targeting of fossil fuel activities. Four large fuel depots around Tehran were bombed by the Israeli forces. This resulted in millions of liters of fuel igniting, which formed dark clouds and toxic black rain over the capital.
Other comparable attacks in Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks on the Gulf countries have cost between 2.5 and 5.9 million barrels of oil in fires with 1.9 million tons of CO2e. The Bloomberg Green satellite analysis reveals burning of key facilities has increased dramatically.
The Das Island liquefied natural gas plant in the United Arab Emirates released approximately 74,100 tonnes of CO2e into the atmosphere between February 28 and March 22, while Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant, the largest LNG export hub in the world, released approximately 101,300 tonnes.
Military Operations: Fuel, Weapons and Hardware
The direct emissions produced by military operations have been quite significant due to the scale of military operations. US heavy bombers have flown missions from as far away as the west of England, while fighter jets, drones, reconnaissance planes, cargo planes, tankers and naval vessels have consumed an estimated 150 to 270 million liters of fuel in the first two weeks alone and produced 529,000 tonnes of CO2.
To put this into perspective, a single Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter jet burns about 5,600 to 6,500 liters of kerosene during a 1.5-2 hour combat sortie, which equates to 14-17 tons of CO2, roughly equal to the lifetime emissions of an average passenger car. By 2024, Lockheed Martin stated that its products released nearly 14 million tons of CO2e when in use.
The war has also destroyed major war equipment. The United States lost four aircraft, while Iran lost 28 aircraft, 21 watercraft and about 300 missile launchers. The total carbon involved in the manufacture of replacements for this equipment is estimated at 172,000 tonnes of CO2e.
Munitions themselves contributed another 55,000 tons, according to claims that US and Israeli forces hit over 6,000 targets, and Iran launched about 1,000 missiles and 2,000 drones, with about 1,900 interceptors launched in self-defense.
Global carbon budget under siege
The two-week emissions during the conflict are a huge drain on the world’s remaining carbon stocks. By June 2025, climate scientists estimated that humanity could emit greenhouse gases equivalent to 130 billion tonnes of CO2 to maintain a 50% probability of slowing warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The annual budget would be exhausted by 2028 at the current rate of 40 billion tons per year worldwide.
Experts note that the short-term emissions from war activities are the tip of the iceberg regarding the potential climate impact of the conflict. The reconstruction of the destroyed infrastructure, cities and buildings will produce emissions for years or decades to come.
The long-term carbon costs may dwarf the war’s initial footprint, as reflected in Ukraine’s patterns, where reconstruction is expected to become a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions.
Apart from the climate consequences, the environmental impacts in the region are already having a devastating effect on the local population. The attacks on the fuel depots in Tehran have caused toxic rain that can have health consequences, including cancer risks, for decades. This is also being reported in other Gulf states, which have also been subject to retaliatory attacks.
