The US labor market weakened noticeably in February, possibly putting the chance of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026 in jeopardy.
The country lost 92,000 jobs last month, according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had forecast an addition of 59,000 new jobs, compared with January’s gain of 126,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, against economists’ expectations of 4.3%, and January’s reading of 4.3%.
Under pressure overnight ahead of the report, trading down to $70,000 as oil rose higher and equity markets dipped, bitcoin remained right around that mark in the minutes following the data.
Ahead of this morning’s report, markets were pricing in a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady at its March 18 meeting and an 85% chance of no rate cut in April.
Meanwhile, rising oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could add upward pressure to inflation expectations. If they continue, higher energy prices could lead to broader inflation, particularly through energy and food costs. Combined with signs that the US economy may be accelerating again, this could prompt markets to reassess the path of monetary policy.
