By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The crypto market rallied on Monday on expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is increasing risk appetite across the board. Bitcoin rose to nearly $92,000, up 3% over the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indexes added in the 3.5% range.
That said, bulls might want to exercise caution because there are at least three yellow flags flying. First, this rate cut is basically a done deal, so all eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s forward guidance and whether he will signal more cuts in 2026. Some market watchers are betting against aggressive easing. Case in point: The 10-year yield is rising in the run-up to the meeting, suggesting bond traders are smelling a hawkish mood.
Momentum is also leaning bearish. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Index screams strong downtrend, and the ether equivalent is not far behind. These turned bearish in mid-November, timing the price decline that followed.
Flows don’t scream “buy” either. The US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs leaked a net $87.77 million last week, with spot ether ETFs bleeding $65.59 million, according to SoSoValue.
“The band is constructive below the surface as large wallets accumulate and stock supply is historically low, but the market is political and macro sensitive this week,” said Timothy Misir, a research analyst at BRN.
Misir added that a hawkish Fed tapering, large-scale ETF outflows or re-acceleration of stock and data inflows that hamper interest rate cut bets could play spoilsport.
Also keep an eye on broader market volatility as token unlocks for CONX, APT, STRK, CHEEL, LINEA and BB, each worth over $5 million, are scheduled for the next seven days, as noted by newsletter service LondonCryptoClub.
In traditional markets, gold’s rally has hit a pause around $4,200 per ounces. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- December 8: EstateX (ESX) platform goes live for Unicorn Club members (1M ESX required) and NFT holders; first property put up for sale.
- December 8 (open market): ProCap Financial Inc. (BRR), formed by the merger of Columbus Circle Capital Corp. I and ProCap BTC, LLC, begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Market.
- 8 December at 11:30: Enjin (ENJ) activates the Senotsa upgrade on the mainnet of both Relaychain and Matrixchain.
- 8 December at 1.30pm: Hive folders (HONEY) AMA at X Spaces.
- Macro
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- December 8: to host the community call for an update on the Mesa upgrade at 11 a.m
- Celo Public Goods votes on the December award for “Support Streams Season 1”, distributing CELO and OP to projects based on stCELO votes. Voting ends December 8.
- Aave DAO votes to embed the Paxos-issued USDG stablecoin into the Aave V3 Core instance. Voting ends December 8.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- Stable (STABLE) listings on various exchanges including Bitfinex and KuCoin.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 3.32% as of 16 ET Friday at $92,192.06 (24 hours: +3.27%)
- ETH is up 4.63% to $3,160.68 (24h: +3.98%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.75% to 2,945.01 (24 hours: +3.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0039% (4.242% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 98.95
- Gold futures are down 0.17% at $4,235.70
- Silver futures are down 0.29% at $58.88
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.18% at 50,581.94
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.23% at 25,765.36
- The FTSE is unchanged at 9,664.29
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,725.95
- The DJIA closed Friday up 0.22% at 47,954.99
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.19% at 6,870.40
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.31% at 23,578.13
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.53% at 31,311.41
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 3.98% at 3,126.05
- The US 10-year Treasury note rose 1.2 bps to 4.151%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.11% to 6,886.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.2% at 25,784.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 47,991.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.38% (-0.12%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03434 (1.41%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,025 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $38.75
- Total Fees: 1.99 BTC / $178,769
- CME Futures open interest: 121,060 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 21.8 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 6.16%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in the 10-year US Treasury yield.
- Benchmark interest rates continue to rise despite the impending Fed rate cut and have carved out a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
- A breakout above the pattern’s resistance line (yellow) could accelerate the uptrend, potentially adding volatility to traditional and digital asset markets.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $269.73 (-1.58%), +2.11% at $275.42 in premarket
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $85.62 (-2.1%), +0.15% at $130.04
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.51 (-7.47%), +1.92% at $26
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $46.45 (-4.07%), +1.42% at $47.11
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.47 (+4.7%), +2.56% at $12.04
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.94 (-4.17%), +2.01% at $15.24
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.11 (+0.18%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.72 (-8.75%), +2.59% at $14.07
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $45.53 (-3.72%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.61 (-5.25%), +2.94% at $15.04
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $178.99 (-3.77%), +2.23% at $182.98
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $17.11 (+0.18%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.72 (-3.94%), +3.26% at $11.07
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.66 (-6.67%), +2.63% at $2.73
- Lite Strategy (LITS: closed at $1.67 (-4.57%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $54.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.6 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$75.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.9 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.25 million
Source: Farside Investors
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