Bitcoin attempted a late weekend rally, but even those small gains were mostly reversed in early US action on Monday, with the price quietly falling near the $90,000 area for the rest of the day.
Trading around $90,500 as US stocks closed, bitcoin was lower by about 1% over the past 24 hours.
Altcoin majors also struggled to hold on to their gains. Ethereum’s Ether slipped slightly lower, but recovered slightly, climbing to its strongest relative price against BTC in more than a month. Other notable outperformers were privacy-focused Zcash and institutional-centric blockchain Canton Network (CC), both booking double-digit gains. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 index, fell 0.8%.
While crypto action was muted, long-term government bond yields rose on fears of trouble in Japanese bonds spilling over into other markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, the highest level in about three months, while British and other European countries’ sovereign debt was also sold. Meanwhile, the Japanese 10-year bond yield continued to climb toward 2%, a level not seen in nearly two decades.
US stocks also fell during the day, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, weighing on broader risk appetite.
This week’s key event will be the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year. While a 25 basis point cut is fully built into expectations, announcements of further runs or other liquidity measures could fuel volatility on Wednesday.
“Any easing of financial conditions or further weakening of the US dollar could provide tailwinds, while any hawkish surprise about the pace or extent of policy accommodation by the Federal Reserve could add to the negative pressure on crypto markets,” LMAX market strategist Joel Kruger said in a note.
BTC is facing structural headwinds
Despite bitcoin’s recent bounce from November lows, Bitfinex analysts warned that the largest crypto is struggling with structural softness and weakening spot demand.
While the S&P 500 is trading near record highs, BTC is stuck in range, highlighting a deepening divergence between crypto and traditional risk assets that points to relative weakness, they pointed out in a Monday report.
Bitfinex outlined several key signals that reinforce this view:
- Sustained outflows from US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, with traders selling for strength rather than accumulating, as shown by sharply negative Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) across major exchanges.
- More than seven million BTC are now sitting with an unrealized loss, reflecting a bearish sentiment similar to the 2022 consolidation period.
- While capital inflows remain slightly positive at $8.69 billion per month (as measured by Net Realized Cap Change), they are well off peak levels and offer only a modest buffer against downside risks.
All these factors add up to a fragile setup at the end of the year, Bitfinex analysts argued.
“With spot demand weakening, the market now faces a meaningfully lighter buy side,” the report said. “This reduces immediate support for the price and increases sensitivity to external shocks, macro-driven volatility and any further tightening in financial conditions.”
