Bitcoin remains only marginally positive year to date, suggesting that 2025 has been a period of consolidation as the asset stabilizes around the $100,000 level.
Much of the recent price weakness appears to be associated with previously dormant coins re-entering circulation, per onchain data.
Large owners, commonly known as whales, have been the primary distributors, driving the current downward pressure on the price, according to The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) by Glassnode.
ATS measures the relative accumulation or distribution behavior across different wallet cohorts, taking into account both the size of units and the amount of coins they have acquired over the past 15 days.
- A value close to 1 suggests that participants in that cohort are actively accumulating.
- A value near 0 indicates that they distribute holdings.
- Exchanges, miners and certain other entities are excluded from the calculation.
Whales with over 10,000 BTC have been consistent sellers since August, marking three months of continuous distribution. Meanwhile, wallets in the 1,000-10,000 BTC range remain neutral around a score of 0.5, while all smaller cohorts (below 1,000 BTC) are firmly in accumulation mode, according to Glassnode data.
While in the first four months of the year, all cohorts were in deep distribution, contributing to bitcoin’s 30% drop to $76,000 in April during the so-called tariff space.
This data highlights a clear divide between whales and the rest of the market participants, and so far it appears that the whales are still driving the price action.
