The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average, has fallen to a negative divergence of -0.15%, the widest since Q1 of this year.
A negative reading on the index means bitcoin is trading cheaper on Coinbase, signaling weakness in US demand, selling pressure and waning institutional appetite. This trend began after the October 10 crypto liquidation event and has continued throughout November.
The move comes as bitcoin is heading for its worst week since early March, after falling more than 11% and briefly dipping below $81,000 before stabilizing around $84,000. November has also delivered steep losses, with bitcoin currently down 23%, marking its worst monthly performance since June 2022, when it fell 38%.
Capitulation event?
This shift in market sentiment is also visible in US spot bitcoin ETFs, which have seen sustained outflows for most of November.
Read more: Bitcoin ETFs hit soft record of 3.79 billion USD in November
Friday, however, broke that streak with $238.4 million inflows, the largest since Nov. 11, according to Farside data. It was also a record day, with the ETFs trading a combined $11.5 billion, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $8 billion of the total.
Balchunas also noted that IBIT saw a record week for put volume, indicating that “this is one thing that can help people stay the course, they can always buy some puts as a hedge while going long.”
Given bitcoin’s 36% move from its October high, Friday could represent a high-volume capitulation event often observed at local price lows. While not guaranteed, the events could signal BTC’s potential attempt to stabilize in the low $80,000 range.
Glassnode data shows more than $4 billion in realized bitcoin losses on Friday, the highest level since March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, another potential capitulation data point.
Read more: Bitcoin selloff led by mid-cycle wallets as long-term whales hold firm: VanEck
