By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Eric Trump was right when he reportedly said on September 27 that the fourth quarter would be incredible for crypto holders. It has been so far… just not as bulls had hoped.
Bitcoin is down 28% to $82,000, with a drop of over 5% in the past 24 hours alone. The total crypto market cap has shrunk 27% to $2.8 trillion.
Regular readers of the Daybook are well aware of the catalysts: the October 10 automatic deleveraging event that rattled market confidence and left arbitrageurs as marginal sellers in the spot market; the depletion of the digital assets financial management narrative; a strengthening dollar; diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts in the US
On top of that, spot bitcoin and ether ETFs are seeing record redemptions. These investment vehicles are considered proxies for institutional capital, which we were told tend to be sticky and take long-term positions.
If so, then these record outflows lead me to wonder: Are these redemptions and price declines a sign that institutions are preparing for greater macroeconomic stress? After all, bitcoin and the broader crypto market are fundamentally liquidity-driven, risk-on/risk-off games. Note that BTC peaked at least a month before stocks did in late 2021.
There are several issues that could escalate, such as Japan’s fiscal challenges, deteriorating private credit in the US and a potentially outsized rise in the dollar, all themes we have mentioned recently.
These can develop into a major crisis. For now, the dip in the crypto market keeps on giving, with BTC’s price chart showing the next major support directly at around $75,000 along with growing investor interest in deep out-of-the-money puts tied to BlackRock’s spot ETF. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 21 Nov at 8:45 a.m.: Fed Vice Chairman Philip N. Jefferson speaks on “Financial Stability.” Watch live.
- 21 November at 9.45am: S&P Global US PMI for November. Manufacture Est. 52, Service Est. 54.6, composite estimated. 54.5.
- 21 November at 10: University of Michigan final data for November. Consumer Sentiment Index Est. 50.5, 5-year inflation expectations Est. 3.6%.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- November 21: Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), pre-market.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- Capybobo (PYBOBO) to list on Gate with PYBOBO/USDT pair.
- to list on Bitmart with SAPIEN/USDT pair.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 4.5% as of 16 ET Thursday at $91,891.98 (24 hours: -9.71%)
- ETH is down 5.42% to $2,720.57 (24h: -10.18%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down -6.38% to 2,950.83 (24 hours: -10.42%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps to 2.93%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0072% (7.446% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 100.22
- Gold futures are down 0.70% at $4,031.70
- Silver futures are down 4.14% at $48.22
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.40% at 48,625.88
- The Hang Seng closed down 2.38% to 25,220.02
- The FTSE is down 0.49% at 9,480.78
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.26% to 5,499.73
- The DJIA closed down 0.84% at 45,752.26
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.56% at 6,538.76
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.15% at 22,078.05
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.23% at 29,906.55
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.32% at 3,029.45
- US 10-year Treasury is down 4.3 bps at 4.061%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.08% at 6,552.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.34% at 24,048.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is up 0.26% to 45,944.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.83% (-0.14%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03261 (-0.3%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,048 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $34.10
- Total Fees: 3.17 BTC / $285,386
- CME Futures open interest: 134,245 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 20.5 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 5.55%
Technical Analysis
- Falling to nearly $81,000, BTC has retraced 80% of the rally from $75,000 in April to over $126,000 in early October.
- Prices have dipped below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
- The next support is seen at around $75,000.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $238.16 (-7.44%), -2.71% to $231.71 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $66.93 (-4%), -2.66% at $65.15
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.03 (-6.72%), -5.58% at $22.69
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.50 (0.3%), -3.01% at $35.40
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.24 (-7.75%), -4% at $9.83
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.78 (-4.27%), -4.85% at $12.16
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.16 (-1.49%), -2.37% at $14.80
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.78 (-4.31%), -3.99% at $9.39
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.76 (-4.06%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.19 (-2%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $177.13 (-5.02%), -5.41% at $167.55
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $18.47 (-6.39%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.30 (-5.78%), -5.38% at $8.80
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.47 (-8.18%), -3.24% at $2.39
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.70 (-4.49%), -4.12% at $1.63
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$903.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.38 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$261.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.6 billion
- Total ETH holding ~6.24 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- BTC Falls Towards Mid-$80K As Market Structure Weakens For Year-End (CoinDesk): Market maker FlowDesk said coins from long-dormant wallets are flooding exchanges and overwhelming bids, leading to defensive positioning, thin liquidity and a rotation to lower strike sets for downside protection.
- Exactly one year after the Strategy’s All Time High, the Bitcoin-Linked Slide intensifies (CoinDesk): The Strategy is down 68% from its record high of $543 last November, while bitcoin has fallen from October’s record high of more than $126,000 to as low as $81,000.
- Yen decline is bullish for BTC and risk assets. Or is it? (CoinDesk): Rising interest rates in Japan are no longer lifting the yen as rising debt fears and monetary policy constraints undermine investor confidence and cloud its usefulness as a signal for crypto markets.
- Bitcoin on track for worst month since 2022 crypto collapse (Bloomberg): Bitcoin is down about 23% this month, analysts say, as massive liquidations, spot ETF outflows and weak institutional demand deepen a correction in what could be the worst month since June 2022.
- Japan Approves $135 Billion Stimulus Shot to Help Households, Economy (The Wall Street Journal): The liquidity injection signals a pivot to aggressive fiscal policy, lifting growth expectations but fueling fears of debt burdens, further yen depreciation and reduced monetary policy flexibility.
