PALM BEACH, Fla. — Prediction markets are starting to play a role in how traditional financial markets move, New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin said Wednesday at the World Liberty Forum in Palm Beach.
“It was very clear to us … that prediction markets [were being used] as an input to traditional markets,” she said at the event held at Mar-a-Lago, pointing to a moment during the 2024 U.S. presidential election when S&P futures rose unexpectedly. According to Martin, the move was later explained by crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket showing Donald Trump as the likely winner before other sources did.
The commentary highlights a growing awareness among institutional players of how on-chain information can influence market behavior. Unlike traditional polling or slow forecasting, Polymarket’s real-time pricing offers a kind of crowdsourced probability feed that traders may find useful.
The NYSE’s interest goes beyond observation. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the NYSE, made a $2 billion strategic investment in Polymarket in October, signaling that the world’s largest exchange operator sees a future in blockchain-based forecasting tools.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who took office late last year, echoed Martin’s comments about the role of prediction markets in society, saying they have national security implications and act as a check on traditional newspaper journalism. He also referred to their role in entertainment and sports – the latter being an area of particular concern to regulators.
“The states have really led this campaign of open warfare against markets that are in the CFTC’s jurisdiction,” Selig said. “The CFTC has for decades [overseen] prediction markets.”
He was referring to the amicus brief the CFTC filed earlier this week with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in a case that hours later denied prediction market provider Kalshi’s request for a stay against the state of Nevada’s efforts to shut down its sports-related prediction markets.
“We will fight this, we will ensure that our markets are free and fair and have integrity,” he said. “We don’t want state gaming commissions telling us how to regulate our markets.”
