What we know so far

The capital is abuzz with political frenzy as the much talked about 27th constitutional amendment is set to be tabled in the Senate on Friday.

With the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) set to raise the matter tomorrow during its executive committee meeting scheduled for tomorrow, two questions seem to dominate all circles: What will the final draft of the amendment contain and can it realistically win passage given the fragile coalition that supports the current parliamentary set-up?

Deliberation on the 27th Amendment began shortly after the 26th^th The constitutional amendment was adopted in October 2024. Yet until now, no one has been able to say for sure what it would entail. On Monday, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari gave the first indication of what it will consist of in a post on X.

Based on Bilawal’s tweet, the 27th Amendment aims to further reform the judiciary building on the changes introduced in the 26th Amendment. It proposes the creation of federal constitutional courts in the provinces, the restoration of executive magistrates and the transfer of powers to enable judges to move between jurisdictions.

This was told by lawyer Mirza Moiz Baig Express Pakinomist that the proposed changes may undermine judicial independence. “The proposed amendments to Article 200, which remove the requirement to obtain a judge’s consent before being transferred, leave judges vulnerable to executive influence. Likewise, restoring executive judges would breach the separation of powers guaranteed under Article 175 and erode the independence of the judiciary.”

The amendment also reportedly seeks to reduce the provincial share under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award and introduce changes in command and control structures relating to the armed forces and appointments to the Election Commission. Among the main articles discussed are Articles 8, 199, 200, 234 and 243.

Article 243 deals with who heads the armed forces of Pakistan. It dictates that “The Federal Government shall have control and command of the armed forces.”

Read: Shehbaz led PML-N delegation approached PPP to support 27th amendment: Bilawal

It goes on to state, “without prejudice to the generality of the preceding provision, the Supreme Command of the Armed Forces shall take over from the President”. There is still a lot of uncertainty about what changes need to be made.

“Similarly, the creation of the Federal Constitutional Court packed with judges who don’t ruffle feathers not only demeans the Supreme Court to an appeals court, but also removes the judiciary’s ability to enforce fundamental rights.”

Baig added: “The proposed 27th Amendment will do to the Confederation what the 18th Amendment did to save it. Revisiting the provincial share in the NFC and curtailing provincial authority would dilute autonomy and undermine the federal character of the Constitution.”

The NFC award has long been a source of tension between the Center and the provinces. Successive governments, including the PTI administration, have expressed dissatisfaction with the current distribution formula, where 57.5% of the resources from the federal divisible pool go to the provinces, while the Center retains 42.5%.

Bilawal revealed that a delegation of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by Prime Minister Shehbaz, met with President Asif Ali Zardari and himself to seek PPP’s support to pass the amendment.

Much now depends on the outcome of the PPP’s central executive committee meeting, which is expected to decide the party’s final position.

Yasser Kureshi, a researcher at the University of Oxford told Express Pakinomist that despite differences between the PML-N and the PPP on other points, “there is likely to be consensus among them to take the next steps in fragmenting and subordinating the judiciary through the 27th Amendment”.

He added that debates about judicial independence “are now largely irrelevant, especially since the 26th Amendment. What we should be asking instead is: how does the current regime seek to use and weaponize the judiciary, and how does this amendment serve that purpose.”

“My understanding is that the role of the judiciary is now to act as a rubber stamp that provides legal cover for the executive branch’s efforts to organize and consolidate power,” Kureshi said.

The Senate

Currently, 64 votes are required in the Senate to pass any constitutional amendment. The PPP has 26 seats, making it the most dominant party on the government benches, while the PML-N has 20.

Among the coalition partners, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) has four members and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has three. Independent senators on the government side include Abdul Karim, Abdul Qadir, Mohsin Naqvi, Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, Asad Qasim and Faisal Vawda.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, addressing the Senate on Tuesday, assured lawmakers that all coalition partners were being consulted and agreement on key votes was expected.

Read more: Experts see the balance of power changing

“We will move forward in accordance with the constitution and the law, giving every member the right to debate and share their opinion,” he said. “Allies are being kept informed and the draft will only be finalized by mutual agreement.”

Dar reaffirmed that it was the government’s constitutional duty to bring forward changes transparently and by consensus. “There should be no confusion as to who should present the bill,” he said. “It is the government’s responsibility and it will happen through parliament, not outside of it.”

On the opposition benches, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) remains the largest party with 14 seats, with a newly elected senator expected to take oath soon. Awami National Party (ANP) has three seats while Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) has seven. Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) and Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) each have one senator.

PTI has unequivocally stated that it will not support the 27th Amendment. Tehreek Tahafuz-e-Aeen-e-Pakistan (TTAP) has announced plans to block all attempts to secure its passage.

Former Speaker of the National Assembly Asad Qaiser criticized the PPP’s stance, saying: “There was once a PPP of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who laid the foundation of the constitution, and another of Benazir Bhutto, who sacrificed her life for democracy. But today’s PPP is working hard to bury democracy.”

Read also: The government brings forward the 27th amendment after full coalition consultation, says Dar

The last step

After the draft amendment is finalized in the Senate, it will go to the National Assembly for a vote.

The ruling alliance may have a two-thirds majority in parliament, but without the support of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the passage of the 27th constitutional amendment remains uncertain. So what is the current party position in the National Assembly and how many votes are needed to pass the amendment?

The National Assembly consists of 336 members, but with 10 seats currently vacant, the total number of sitting members is 326. To pass a constitutional amendment, the ruling coalition requires the “golden number” of 224 votes.

At present, the ruling alliance has the support of 237 members in the National Assembly. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is the largest party in the coalition with 125 members, followed by Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 22, Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) with 5, Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) with each-Z-League of Pakistan, and Muslim League with 4, (ZPM League) Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and National Party. The government also enjoys the support of four independent members.

With 74 members, the PPP is the second largest party in the coalition. Its support has been crucial in helping the federal government secure not only a simple majority but also a two-thirds majority when required.

On the other hand, the opposition benches have only 89 members in total. These include 75 independents, 10 members from Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-Pakistan) and one member each from Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC), Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM), Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) and Pashtunkhwa Milli Akwami.

Nothing about the 27th constitutional amendment we know for sure yet, the draft that will initially be presented on the floor of the Senate on 7 November will in all probability not be the amendment that will ultimately come to a vote in the National Assembly. What we do know is that the burden of passing the 27th constitutional amendment rests on the shoulders of the PPP, without whom the amendment may never materialize.

With additional reporting by Noor ul Huda Bhurgri