Since mid -July, Bitcoin’s (BTC) Ascent has subsided over $ 120,000. Prices hit a new highlight of $ 124,157 early Thursday, but have since withdrawn to $ 123,000 lacking speed.
This raises a question: Who does Bitcoin pay out and add sales pressure to the market? According to observers, the answer lies in blockchain data, which shows that old wallets have liquidated their inventory.
“It may be linked to concentrated sales pressure from long-term holders who recently accelerated their sales,” Gabriel straw told Senior Blockchain analyst at Sentora, to Coindesk.
“Historically, the long-term owner’s selling phases are defined purely within the Bitcoin cycle. This time, however, accumulation under Q2’s withdrawal has given way to renewed sales, which suggests that the market’s structure may be changing.”
The supply of BTC controlled by long -term owners or wallets with a history of owning coins for 155 days or more has fallen by over 300,000 BTC in four weeks, according to Data Source Bitcoin Magazine.
Several sleeping wallets, inactive for over a decade, have become active for the past four weeks and moved coins on chain for the first time this year, possibly in profit operations.
Blockchain Analytics company Glassnode stated last week that long-term profits are continuing, albeit at a slower speed than in July.
“$ BTC profit realization of long-term holders (7D SMA) Has slowed down in August after a July race consistently over $ 1b/day – one of the biggest profit -taking periods on the record, “Glassnode said at X.
Sam Gaer, Chief Investment Officer for Monarq Asset Management’s Directional Fund, stated that the supply from old wallets has been limited upside down, but has been largely absorbed, which matched the pattern seen last year when Germany’s Saxony State liquidated its inventory.
“Price levels in BTC have had a tendency to consolidate around psychological levels (Think $ 100,000, $ 110,000, $ 120,000) And specifically around ATH levels. The same pattern was seen just last month at the $ 110,000 level as we touched all time heights in the 112 area and then drifted lower several times, ”Gaer said.
The sustained sale of institutions with a higher strike from institutions could have affected the rally speed. They typically do it to earn an extra yield on top of the spot market stocks. According to Gaer, the so -called call overwriting has led to a volatility melt. Implicated volatility, representing the expected price bulb over a certain period of time, is driven by demand for opportunities.
“Call overwriting activity from long-term owners continue in a seemingly unabated way with a vol crush that is back BTC with weekend vols in the teenagers- unheard of in my experience. I use the term ’40 is the new 60 ‘when I refer to the total BTC [implied] Volatility prices – This is a historic sign of a market matures, “Gaer said.
What next?
The path with least resistance remains upward thanks to signs of strong dip demand and macroeconomic tail winds.
“1.88 million addresses bought 1.3 million BTC to an average of $ 118,000, indicating a strong layer of demand that has so far prevented a deeper withdrawal,” straw told Coindesk.
When talking about macro, the market is increasingly comfortable with the idea that the new normal inflation in the post -kovide world is well above the 2% target of the Fed and expects the central bank to reduce the rates in September.
Steve Gregory, founder of Vtrader, expects renewed rotation of funds for Bitcoin from Ether.
“We can see a rotation back to Bitcoin and a break of $ 120,000 level as Bitcoin’s 3-month volatility hit its lowest since September 2023. In addition, 95% of ETH drawing books are now in profits, indicating that dealers can make a logical rotation back to BTC,” Gregory said.
