Bitcoin rose to $ 109,343 on July 9, an increase of 0.8% over the previous 24 hours, according to Coindesk Research’s technical analysis model.
In a Social Social Post at. 10:00 a declared Trump that the US Federal Funds are “at least 3 points too high” referring to a 300 basic point (3%) cut. He argued that the delay of such a step imposes an annual burial of $ 360 billion on refinancing costs. Within 30 minutes, BTC began to rise steadily as dealers seemed that the price of the short-term consequences of such a dramatic political shift, including the potential for renewed liquidity and risk-on mood.
In a comprehensive thread of X, macro -analysts at Kobeissi -letter gave a detailed collapse of Trump’s claim. According to their analysis, the total US interest payments have already reached $ 1.2 trillion over the past 12 months – equivalent to $ 3.3 billion per year. Day.
They noticed that although Trump’s math assumes $ 360 billion in savings per year. Percentage points across $ 36 trillion in national debt, only approx. $ 29 trillion in public and will be affected by rate changes. Under more realistic assumptions, they estimate that as many as 300 bps that were cut down could gradually reduce interest expenses by approx. $ 174 billion in the first year, potentially a total of $ 2.5 trillion over five years if 20% of debt is refinanced annually.
Despite these potential savings, the report warned that the broader financial consequences of a 3% reduction would be historic. No single fat rate in modern history has exceeded 100 basic points – even during the 2008 crisis or emergency in March 2020. Implementation of a reduction of 300 bps outside a recession in an economy growing by 3.8% annually would be unprecedented.
The Kobeissi letter warned that such a movement would probably reign inflation over 5%, triggering a steep decline in the US dollar – potentially over 10% – and causing house prices to rise due to a sharp decline in the mortgage rates. ACTIVITY MARKETS would probably collect in the short term, with gold forecasts to hit $ 5,000, oil over $ 80 per day. Barrel and S&P 500 violate 7,000. However, they emphasized that the long -term consequences would be destabilizing without major reductions in US government spending.
For Bitcoin, the implications are clear: A sudden decrease in interest rates would be considered monetary stimulus, which is likely to accelerate capital inflow in hard assets and alternative values of value such as BTC. While analysts continue to discuss the likelihood of such cuts, the market’s immediate reaction suggests that investors are placing up for upward risk.
Technical analysis highlights
- The BTC prize moved strongly within 30 minutes of Trump’s Truth’s Social Post at 1 p.m. 10:00 ET.
- Consolidation ceased earlier in the day, but buying volume increased significantly after Trump’s interest rate comments.
- Tested resistance near $ 109,761, with higher low taking down forming over $ 108,500, indicating the bullish structure.
- Bollinger bands compressed to their tightest levels in this cycle, historically a signal of pending outbreaks.
- Institutional accumulation remains visible via volume clusters near support zones around $ 108,500- $ 108,600.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the help of AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and compliance with Our standards. For more information, see Coindesk’s full AI policy.
