WTC final scenarios – What must India, Australia, South Africa do to get to the WTC final?

With 15 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, several teams are still in contention and no team is assured of a place in the top two. Here you can see how the teams are currently doing.

South Africa
Percentage: 59.26, games left: SL (1 home test), Pak (2 home)

South Africa’s comprehensive victory in Durban is a tick in the bag, out of the four they will need, to be assured of a place in the WTC final regardless of other results. If they lose the second test against Sri Lanka and win both against Pakistan they would still have a fair chance of qualifying at 61.11% but Sri Lanka and India could both go past them – Sri Lanka if they win 2 -0 against Australia, and India if they win at least three of their remaining four Tests against Australia. Australia can also go past 61.11 with four wins and a draw, but in that case both India and Sri Lanka would finish below South Africa.

If South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test and draw 1-1 against Pakistan, they would still finish at 61.11 but would be assured of a place in the final as Sri Lanka would only get to 53.85 if they win both Tests against Australia . Thus, only one of Australia or India can go past South Africa in that case.

Sri Lanka
Percentage: 50.00, games left: SA (1 away test), Aus (2 home)

The Durban defeat means Sri Lanka can finish with a maximum of 61.54% if they win their three remaining Tests. That would still guarantee a place in the final as only India or Australia can finish higher. If they lose one more Test and win two, their percentage will drop to 53.85, leaving them dependent on several other results. Currently, South Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand can go past 53.85.

New Zealand
Percentage: 50.00, games left: Eng (2 at home)

New Zealand’s lackluster performance in Christchurch could have scuppered any realistic chance of reaching their second WTC final. A 3-0 series win against England would have taken them to 64.29%, but this defeat – and the three points they dropped due to a poor over-rate – means the maximum they can achieve is 55 ,36. This could still be enough for them to finish in the top two, but for that more results would need to go in their favour. For example, if the Australia-India series ends 1-1, like South Africa’s two home series and Sri Lanka’s home series against Australia, then New Zealand will finish second behind Australia, but that still leaves them dependent on too many other results.

India
Percentage: 61.11, games left: Aus (4 away)

India’s emphatic win in Perth takes them back to the top of the WTC points table and keeps their chances of making the final at Lord’s next year very much alive. To be sure of finishing in the top two, India need to beat Australia 3-0: That would lift India to 62.28, which would be more than Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54, should they win their three remaining Tests , and more than South Africa’s 61.11 should they beat Pakistan 2-0 but not sweep Sri Lanka. If South Africa were also to sweep Sri Lanka 2-0, they would get to 69.44, which means that with three wins and two draws in Australia, India would be second on the points table.

However, these scenarios are based on other teams maximizing their points. If that doesn’t happen, India can still manage with far fewer points. For example, if these results happen from the upcoming key series:

India lose to Australia 2-3
New Zealand draw against England 1-1
South Africa are tied 1-1 at home in both their remaining series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan
Australia draw 0-0 in Sri Lanka

Australia would finish on top at 58.77, but India’s 53.51 would still be enough for second ahead of South Africa (52.78), New Zealand (52.38) and Sri Lanka (51.28). Where India ends up also depends on how the other results go.

Australia
Percentage: 57.69, games left: In (4 home tests), SL (2 away)

The defeat in Perth means Australia have plenty to do to finish in the top two without relying on other results. With South Africa and Sri Lanka both able to finish at more than 61%, Australia need four wins and a draw in their last six to finish ahead of Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54; in this case, only South Africa, with a maximum of 69.44, could finish ahead of them.

Should India win the ongoing series 3-2, Australia could still finish ahead of them, but only if they sweep the away series against Sri Lanka 2-0. In this case, Australia would finish at 60.53, marginally ahead of India’s 58.77. If so, they would definitely finish in the top two as only South Africa could go past that.

Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, series remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)

Pakistan’s domestic form has shown some revival, but it is most likely too late in this cycle. If they win each of their four remaining Tests, they would finish at 52.38. In such a case, they would still need more results going their way to be in contention. For example, if Sri Lanka lose 0-1 in South Africa and draw 1-1 against Australia, India lose 1-2 in Australia and New Zealand lose 1-2 against England, then Pakistan’s 52.38 would be enough for second place behind Australia .

England
Percentage: 42.50, Matches Remaining: NZ (2 away)

England’s win in Christchurch – albeit with a three-point penalty – has marginally improved their percentage to 42.50. It will almost certainly not be enough to qualify, although there is a faint mathematical chance of finishing second at 47.73 if several other results go their way: if India win all Tests against Australia, who again beat Sri Lanka 1-0, who again draw the second test against South Africa, who then lose both tests to Pakistan, who did not beat the West Indies by a 1-0 margin, then England could still finish second to India. Needless to say, even the biggest England fan doesn’t count on this happening.

Bangladesh and West Indies is out of contention for a place in the top two.

S Rajesh is the statistics editor for Pakinomist. @rajeshstats

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