“You aren’t bullish enough!” An XRP enthusiast exclaimed on X last week after Ripple, who uses the token for cross-border transactions, announced that the US securities and exchange commission has dropped its case against them.
Many others share this tension, and understandably, as the end of this long -standing legal battle has lifted a weight that hindered XRP’s performance compared to the wider market during the 2021 Bull Run. There is also the XRP ETF hype and hopes the token can become part of the American strategic reserve.
That said, the recent price action does not reflect the above optimism, with key momentum indicators that flash a large bearish shift in the trend warning of a remarkable price glass at the front.
XRP rose over 11% to $ 2.59 last Wednesday and cheered SEC News. Since then, the following has been anything but Bullish with prices bound between $ 2.30- $ 2.50, despite optimism, which expected mutual trade rates from President Donald Trump on April 2 could be measured more than originally expected.
Three-Linje’s Bride Chart
The first indicator that signalizes Bearish trend reversing is the three-line breaking chart that focuses only on price movements while filtering out short-term noise, which helps identify trend changes as suggested by the market and not arbitrary/discretionary commercial rules.
The chart consists of vertical blocks called lines or columns (green and red). A bull turn happens when a green beam occurs with prices that move higher than the highest point in the last three red beams. On the contrary, a bearish shift is represented by the emergence of a new red beam that goes beyond the lowest point in the previous three green beams.
In the case of XRP, a new red bar appeared early this month in the weekly timeframe and has kept intact after the SEC news. The “weekly” aspect means this chart aggregates price information over a week.
The new red beam indicates a bullish-to-bearing shift in momentum. Similar patterns characterized the beginning of prolonged bear markets in 2021 and early 2018.
Macd
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram used to measure trend strength and trend changes produces deeper columns below the zero line on the weekly chart. It is a sign of strengthening downward momentum.
The same indicator turned positively in November, after which prices rose from $ 1 to over $ 3.
The simple movement average of the 5- and 10-weeks (SMAs) has also crossed Bearish, which suggests that the path with the least resistance is facing.
Bollinger bands
Bollinger Bands volatility tapes placed two standard deviations above and below XRP’s 20-week SMA-ER expanded in response to the sharp price rally at the end of 2024 and early this year.
Historically, prices have tended to move lower after the sharp expansion of Bollinger bands, which observed after mid -2021 and early 2018.
When Bullish?
A fixed move of $ 3, the high registered on March 2nd, would invalid the bearish setup and negate the lower high pattern to suggest a renewed bullish technical view.
Some analysts expect XRP to reach as high as $ 10 by the end of this decade.
