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If you’re considering NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, don’t waste your time.
At -20,000 odds – meaning it takes a bet of $200 to win a dollar – Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favourite. The Indiana quarterback is practically signed, sealed and delivered to the Las Vegas Raiders.
But things get more interesting from there.
“When someone is that big of a favorite, the conversation seems to shift to the No. 2 pick. And it has,” Caesars Sports head of football merchandising Joey Feazel said. “It’s the most bet prop, the biggest bet market right now.”
Feazel helps break down the most notable 2026 NFL Draft odds ahead of the Thursday-Saturday event in Pittsburgh.
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Information age
Before we address the No. 2 overall pick, it’s first worth noting how NFL Draft betting differs from what bookmakers typically face.
“In the trading department, we like to use math,” Feazel said, alluding to how odds are set for games. “But the NFL Draft is information-based. When a bet comes in on information, the difficulty is determining whether it’s a rumor or whether the player on the other side has information. And whether a rumor is true or not.
“When you take math out of the equation, it’s usually not that helpful to us.”
Sharp players often engage in NFL Draft odds and they tend to do well. It’s a tough event for sportsbooks to win.
“We’ve won sometimes and we’re definitely trying to win. But we don’t expect a lot of the information to go our way,” Feazel said.
Two-man match
The No. 2 overall pick is still very much in flux, though it’s clearly a two-man battle between Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey.
It’s so close, in fact, that as of Tuesday afternoon, Reese and Bailey are -115 co-favorites at Caesars. After those two, odds stretch to +6000 for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.
No surprise, information affects this NFL prop bet.
“It was starting to look like David Bailey was going to go No. 2, so we moved him to the favorite. But then there was thought the Jets might try to trade the pick,” Feazel said.
Don’t be surprised if Reese and Bailey’s odds continue to be shaky. And if a trade happens at No. 2, things could get a lot murkier.
“There could be someone who isn’t even expected to be in the mix,” Feazel said.
QBs or no QBs
Among the many NFL Draft prop bets available, one of the most popular is the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
This year, expectations are quite low. Virtually all sportsbooks have an Over/Under of 1.5. However, Over 1.5 is a growing favourite, now at odds of -225, with Under 1.5 a +175 underdog.
Mendoza is obviously a lock. The deciding factor is whether Alabama QB Ty Simpson is considered first-round worthy.
“It’s kind of gone up and down. And it correlates with the price of Simpson going to draft in the first round,” Feazel said.
In fact, it is directly related. On the separate NFL Draft plug of players to be selected in the first round, Simpson is -225.
However, there are different opinions among the players.
“It’s been a two-way operation, all based on speculation about Simpson,” Feazel said. “There are rumors that the Cardinals or someone else might be interested.”
Arizona has the No. 3 overall pick — which it certainly won’t spend on Simpson — then the other second-round pick, No. 34 overall. The thought is that the Cards might try to trade up from the No. 34 slot, into the first round, to draft Simpson.
But if you think Arizona holds pat and Simpson slips to Round 2, then there might be some betting value under 1.5 QBs. At +175, a net bet of $100 will yield $175 in profit (total payout of $275).
Several popular plays
Feazel said three more markets consistently draw attention in NFL Draft prop betting: players to be picked in the top 5, top 10 or first round.
“Aries are trying to find value at a plus-money price,” Feazel said. “One thing we saw recently where the Giants crept back into the top 10 was the interest in Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson.”
Tyson had hamstring issues that kept him out of the NFL combine and ASU’s first pro day. And past injuries are also a concern, including a multi-ligament knee sprain in 2022.
On Friday, however, he had a private training session that apparently went well. And the Giants are rumored to be a strong possible suitor after they traded Pro Bowl defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals in exchange for the 10th pick.
“Early on, we had Tyson at +220 to go in the first 10 picks. Now we’re at -375,” Feazel said of the wideout who went from an underdog to a favorite in that market. “He is expected to be elected early.”
Tyson’s top-10 props tie the market for the number of first-round wide receivers. Feazel said Caesars opened the Over 5.5 as a modest -125 favourite, but those odds are now out at -190.
In addition, Caesars opened the support for offensive linemen drafted in the first round to 7.5, with odds of -115 on both the Over and Under – a pick ’em. However, over 7.5 is now a significant favorite -280.
“A lot of people are expecting a large number of offensive linemen, from picks 10 to 20,” Feazel said.
