NEWYou can now listen to Pakinomist articles!
“Bear Bets” are real bets that Chris “The Bear” Fallica actually makes.
The Preakness moves to Laurel for the year, and with the new location comes 12 new runners to the Triple Crown trail, as only Ocelli and Incredibolt run in the second jewel of the Triple Crown after starting in the Kentucky Derby.
It’s a wide open race with a 9-2 favorite on the Morning Line (Iron Honor) and a trio of 5-1 shots (Incredibolt, Chip Honcho and Taj Mahal). If you like one of these four horses, you will still be paid if they win.
However, it has the characteristics of the cashier board lighting up, just as it did in the Derby.
Here are some thoughts on the race and how I will bet it, trying to recover from a bad Derby!
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you register or place a bet, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
Notes, statistics and trends
Taj Mahal (1) certainly seems like the “now” horse for many people. He is 3-for-3 with each of his wins coming at Laurel, the last two in front-running fashion. Brittany Russell will try to make it consecutive Triple Crown races won by female trainers. I certainly don’t know what was behind Taj Mahal in any of those races, but this is an underpar Preakness in overall talent level. The Taj Mahal will probably have company in the lead, and it’s probably not a big deal since the Taj Mahal will break from the rail. I expect a bunch of (3) Crupper, (4) Robusta, (6) Chip Honcho, (10) Napoleon Solo, (11) Corona de Oro and (14) Pretty Boy Miah to contest the early start. I expect Taj Mahal to go as a warm favorite and I will be against in the winner’s pool.
Iron Honor (9) is a horse that interests me quite a lot. Chad Brown’s Preakness horses, priced at 6-1 or better, have never finished worse than fourth (one win, one second and two fourths). The Gotham winner was beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial from an impossible far post. I love the blinkers off angle here which should keep him away from what I think will be a hotly contested pace. I will enter him everywhere in tri and super. Each of the last six Preakness favorites has finished in the money (one win, three seconds and two thirds).
I throw (2) Ocelli. His run third in the Derby has written “closer who caught a clean run in the stretch behind a collapsing pace”. The shorter stretch here won’t help him – or anyone else deep closer – get up for the win, despite what I think will be a fast pace. I think he’ll be an underdog here and I just can’t get behind a horse that was 28-1 and 71-1 in his two graded stakes races and will now be 5-1 or 6-1.
Steve Asmussen, who has won this race twice, sends (6) Chip Honcho to the post. Since those two wins, only two of Asmussen’s 13 Preakness starters have managed another second-place finish, so he hasn’t had a good run here lately — see Clever Again last year, who cut fast fractions and finished last. Honcho feels like one of those horses that needs everything to go his way to have a chance to win, and I’m not sure if that will be the case here. Those who like him can certainly point to his finishing five lengths ahead of Derby winner Golden Tempo in Risen Star. It feels like a subtype to me.
(10) Napoleon Solo is trainer Chad Summers’ first Triple Crown starter and is another sure to be in the lead. His two races as a three-year-old haven’t matched what he did as a two-year-old in New York over shorter distances, so I’m skeptical.
I thought (12) Incredibolt would run well in the Derby and he ran decently. He will be chasing a fast pace and if he can work a trip where he is not too far back he has a chance here. I will use.
Now for the two long shots that have my interest. (5) Talkin has been pointed to this race by Danny Gargan since Blue Grass. People might see beaten 12-plus lengths in that race, but keep in mind that Further Ado flipped that day and won by 11. He also ran a career-best Beyer that day, and should be able to improve on that in his third start of the year. He clearly needed the run – speed and fade – in Tampa when he was beaten by The Puma and Further Ado and was 4-1 vs Renegade in Remsen when he pulled all the way outside. He was the same price as Napoleon Solo in Champagne when Solo caught a flier and had it his own way. Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps on a horse that expects to have a stakes trip from a tidy post, and while I don’t expect to get 20-1 here, I think the price will still be very attractive. Gargan won the 2024 Belmont with 18-1 shot Dornoch and I think he’s a very lively long shot on Saturday.
If you’re willing to take a leap of faith and really take a stab, (11) Corona de Oro isn’t the worst 30-1 shot there has been. He has hit the board in all three races as a three-year-old and has certainly improved since the two starts as a two-year-old. The question is, can he sit and not interfere in the speed duel? He was a beaten favorite at Fair Grounds in a six-furlong race to start the year and came off the pace there, then bolted as a short price in a short field to break the maiden, before a third at Lexington at 7-2 after setting the pace. In his second start against winners, he should move forward. I hope John Velazquez doesn’t ship and just slips into the gap Napoleon Solo will leave when one goes to the lead. Then, in theory, he can follow Iron Honor all the way around. Dallas Stewart has had four horses finish second in a Triple Crown race, and all four were at least 29-1. In what is such a “meh” field, I think this horse has a chance – if my guess on how he could run the race is correct.
Good luck everyone! Looking forward to Saratoga for the Belmont Stakes on FOX on June 6th.
How I bet on the Preakness Stakes
$4 Exacta Box ($48)
1-5-9-11
$2 Exacta Key Box ($28)
5-11/1-5-9-11-12
$10 winning slot ($40)
5-11
$1 Trifecta ($48)
9-12/5-11/all
$1 Trifecta ($72)
5-11/1-9-12/all
