NEWYou can now listen to Pakinomist articles!
48 teams. An additional knockout round. And a draw that in several groups looks like FIFA actively tried to create chaos. Someone will go deep in this tournament that no one saw coming.
Of course, the biggest World Cup in history will still feature powerhouses and expected favorites to win. But more competition means more potential for surprise runs and new fan-favorite teams.
Here are four darkhorse teams that should be on your radar for this summer’s FIFA World Cup.
Odds to win the World Cup: +3000
Odds to advance from the group: -900
Group I Opponents: Iraq (June 16), Senegal (June 22), France (June 26)
Norway is back at the World Cup for the first time in 28 years, and it arrives as one of Europe’s most in-form teams. It dominated a European Championship qualifying group that included Italy and also went unbeaten during the qualifying process.
Another story is that striker Erling Haaland has spent his entire career watching the World Cup on TV; looking at other superstars get to shine on the biggest stage. Haaland scored an overwhelming 16 goals in the qualifiers in just eight games played. Simple math shows that it is an average of two measures per game. It just doesn’t happen in this sport. Norway didn’t sneak through – it burst through, and Haaland did it with the energy of a man who bench-marks small cars for fun and whose hair has its own agent.
Anyway, Group I has France, Senegal and Iraq. Norway will be number two. Beating Senegal and taking something out of France is completely doable for a squad that also includes Martin Ødegaard and Alexander Sørloth floating around Haaland. Get into the knockouts and nobody wants to play Norway.
Odds to win the World Cup: +4000
Odds to advance from the group: -1000
Group K opponents: Uzbekistan (June 17), DR Congo (June 23), Portugal (June 27)
Colombia have James Rodríguez, Luis Díaz and a deep attacking pool that allows them to beat anyone in the world on any given day. And its qualifying campaign backed it up.
Group K pits the squad against Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan. This is a group Colombia can absolutely win. Néstor Lorenzo has built a team that no longer relies on a moment of James’ magic to unlock play, thanks to Díaz’s directness, a suffocating press in midfield and genuine defensive solidity, this makes this a complete side. James still pulls the strings, but he doesn’t have to carry everything anymore.
James turns 35 in July. He’s spent the last few years drifting from Rayo to León to Minnesota just to stay sharp enough to be here. He has one of the most elegant left feet in the game, capable of a magical free kick or a surgically precise through ball. Despite his age, he can still change the game from a stationary position.
Colombia’s biggest current star is Luis Díaz. After moving from Liverpool to Bayern Munich, he became one of Europe’s most feared wingers. He finished the season with a whopping 26 goals and 19 assists across all competitions. World class numbers. Oh, and he just won the Meisterschale, or as you and I say, the Bundesliga trophy. Luis Díaz will be one of the most important players at this World Cup.
Odds to win the World Cup: +5000
Odds to advance from the group: -1000
Group C opponents: Brazil (June 13), Scotland (June 19), Haiti (June 24)
At some point, we probably have to stop calling Morocco a dark horse. It reached the World Cup semi-final in Qatar. It beat Spain. It beat Portugal. It did so with a structure so tight and a defensive shape so organized that elite coaches spent days figuring out how to break it.
The tactical core is still largely intact – and when former manager Walid Regragui left in March. The new coach is Mohamed Ouahbi, a former U23 coach who most had never heard of three months ago. On paper, that should scare Atlas Lions fans. In practice, the system is so deeply embedded in this team that the identity does not live in the grave. It lives in the players. Achraf Hakimi knows his role. Youssef En-Nesyri knows his role. This group has been through a World Cup semi-final together. A change of coach does not erase that muscle memory.
Morocco open Group C against Brazil. Not against Haiti. Not against Scotland. Against Brazil, in what is immediately one of the best matches of the group stage. Beat or draw the Seleção in the opener and Morocco will enter the entire tournament.
Qatar was not lucky. This is a team that knows exactly how to win. The 2022 race raised the bar. The leader who built that track is gone. Now we find out how deep the foundation really goes.
Odds to win the World Cup: +6500
Odds to advance from the group: -400
Group F opponents: Netherlands (June 14), Tunisia (June 21), Sweden (June 25)
Japan has beaten Germany and Spain at a World Cup. Both of these sentences used to be considered impossible. Now only the results from the 2022 tournament in Qatar.
The press system that Hajime Moriyasu has built is among the most disciplined in international football. The team’s pressing traps are overwhelming, its transitions quick and its shape almost impossible to disorganize. Kaoru Mitoma and Takefusa Kubo provide the technical quality. The collective provides the method that makes playing them a real nightmare. Players across their formation compete at the highest level of European domestic football. The talent is now mixed with plenty of experience.
Group F draws them against the Netherlands, Tunisia and Sweden. It’s a difficult group, but Japan can easily move up. And if it does, such a compact and tactically fearless team will be one of the most unpleasant draws in the knockouts. Nobody wanted to play Japan in Qatar. Nothing has changed.
More FIFA World Cup coverage
