Karachi:
Northern Pakistan rolls from devastating climate-induced flash rivers that killed hundreds earlier this month and destroyed home, infrastructure and livelihood in scenes many compared to the catastrophic 2022 delimits.
Pakistan ranks among the world’s 10 most climate power countries, despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Experts warn that such floods and other accidents are no longer “rare disasters” and become routine shocks in a country that is poorly prepared to resist them.
According to these experts, the focus should now be on adaptation, not cuts in emissions.
“Floods are no longer rare disasters in Pakistan. They become routine shocks that people support for any monsoon. Calling them ‘New Normal’ is not an exaggeration,” Karachi-based ecologist Rafi-Ul-Haq said.
Since mid-August, stormy rain, flash floods and cloudbursts have killed more than 460 people across the country, including in Pakistan-managed Kashmir and the northern Gilgit-Baltist region.
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa has been the worst hit, where raised rivers, mud lids and collapsing homes have buried whole families. Nationwide, almost 800 people died in rain -triggered floods and landslides since the end of June.
HAQ said the intensity of rain and floods accelerates due to climate change, global warming and melting glaciers. But human actions – not -planned urbanization, deforestation, blocked waterways, escaped governance and weak emergencies – account for as much as 60% of the destruction.
“Pakistan can’t stop the rain, but it can prevent much of the suffering from fixing man -made vulnerabilities,” he said. “Floods will happen, but disasters don’t need.”
Ahmed Kamal, an Islamabad-based flooding expert, described the current flood as a “new normal.” Changing monsoon patterns, he said, has intensified rainfall and created new hotspots of destruction.
The Gilgit-Baltist region, home to towering glaciers, has experienced alarming changes. Temperatures have risen steadily, accelerating glacier melting and causing flooding of the glacial lake. In May, Chilas District recorded a hitherto unseen 49c (120f).
“We have our glaciers that melt very quickly while winters shrink,” Kamal said. “Snowfall was almost 50% below average last year.”
He also pointed out the dangers of intensifying cyclon threats in Pakistan and said rising sea surface temperatures in the Arab Sea have changed storm activity west, with cyclones increasingly hit the coast since 2007.
At the same time, decades of deforestation – driven by demand for agricultural land and housing – have removed the country with natural flood buffers. “This has multiplied the frequency and intensity of flooding,” Kamal said.
Adaptation, resilience and governance
Experts claim that Pakistan should focus on building resilience through a mixture of natural and structural solutions.
“Given its economic limits, Pakistan’s priority must be adaptation and resilience rather than cuts in emissions,” Haq said.
He urged to recover wetlands, mangroves and flooding sites to absorb excess water, clear illegal construction from drainage channels and upgrade the city’s drainage systems with green infrastructure.
He also emphasized the need for flood resilent agriculture supported by insurance and social safety networks. “Low -cost steps like cleaning before monsoon, early warning systems and shelters in the local community can save lives right away,” he said, while also emphasizing the need to tackle weak planning and corruption.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has acknowledged that “criminal negligence” of successive governments had allowed construction on riverbed and waters. At a cabinet meeting last week, he promised to clear these interventions.
“Along with this, major investments in the management of waters and resilient housing can follow international climate financing,” Kamal said.
Climate management expert Imran Saqib Khalid warned that unless Pakistan takes quick action, the future could bring food security, water shortages and mass migration. “Science shows that if we continue on this course when we reach close to 2.5 ° C at the end of the century, which will cause destruction,” he said.
Khalid also argued that Islamabad should join forces with other low -emitting nations to demand more just global action and finance.
Kamal ended with an optimistic note and said, “The challenge is huge, but the opportunity window is still there. With scientifically smart adaptation strategies, we could at least mitigate much of the destruction.”
