Long-term holder (LTH) supply hit a cyclical low on November 21, the same day bitcoin tied around $80,000. With the bitcoin price now back at $90,000, about 15% higher from the low, the data suggests that most of the spot-driven selling pressure has already washed through the market after the 36% peak to trough correction.
This trend has become a key narrative in 2025, as sustained spot selling has been the primary reason bitcoin has traded largely flat year-to-date.
Long-term holders are defined as entities that have held their coins for at least 155 days. As coins age from short-term holders to this cohort, the supply of long-term holders naturally increases.
The recent stabilization and early recovery suggests that the wave of distribution from these more experienced owners is slowing significantly, reducing structural selling pressure in the market.
Since the summer, long-term owners have reduced their holdings from 14,769,512 BTC in July to 14,330,128 BTC in November.
The previous two lows in long-term holder supply occurred in April 2024 and March 2025. The April 2024 drop occurred shortly after bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,000, showing that long-term holders were dissipating in strength. The March 2025 low arrived during the correction driven by the Trump tariff concerns, which ultimately saw bitcoin bottom in April at around $76,000.
Looking across previous cycles, long-term holder supply typically sees sharp declines during the retail-driven bullish phases that accompany cycle peaks, particularly in 2017 and 2021.
However, this cycle looks different. Instead of a dramatic blow-off peak followed by aggressive distribution, the pattern has become more measured, with more steady ebb and flow. This indicates that the market structure and holder behavior has evolved, putting a dent in the four-year cycle structure as onchain behavior is different.
