By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran remains the biggest story of the day as attacks intensify and spread.
Markets reacted as they usually do: by reducing risk and sending oil prices higher. Bitcoin fell to $66,300, down 0.5% over 24 hours, after hitting a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 index fell more than 2%, signaling broader losses in the crypto market, and futures tied to the S&P 500 lost 1%.
Looking past the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen the “debasement trade,” a strategy in which investors rotate into scarce supply assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a fall in the value of fiat (paper) currencies.
Governments in the US and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in economic growth. Their economy will only worsen the longer the war drags on. In such situations, governments do not collect enough taxes. Instead, they force central banks to “print money” through bond purchases or quantitative easing (QE) to monetize debt. This floods the fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello humiliation.
Traders lead this process by loading valuable assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been on a tear for over a year, mainly on decay currents. BTC did not participate then. But now, after nearly halving to below $67,000 since October, it appears oversold. The possibility of the debasement trade catalyzing a bounce in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out.
Also, the Fed historically turns to liquidity easing during geopolitical stress, which supports asset prices, as Maelstrom Funds CIO Arthur Hayes noted in his blog post.
Let’s see how things develop. Meanwhile, traders need to watch overall risks and oil recovery. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- March 2: SuperRare releases Delirium, a new collection by artist Xer0x
- March 2: Mantra’s OM switches to MANTRA with a 1:4 coin split when the MANTRA chain is upgraded from v6 to v7.
- Macro
- 2 March at 10:00am: US ISM manufacturing PMI for February estimated 52.3 (prev 52.6)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.32
- March 2: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- PoolTogether DAO votes to manually resubmit and execute the remaining actions for the PTBR-35 Governance Shutdown after a previous execution failure. Voting ends March 2.
- Angle DAO votes for proper settlement of EURA and USDA stablecoins, giving users a one-year 1:1 redemption period followed by a final settlement airdrop. Voting ends March 2.
- The GMX DAO votes for the transition to a defined management model by hiring a CEO with performance-based compensation and forming an interim management committee to guide the restructuring. Voting ends March 2.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- March 2: Dovu (DOVU) to list on Kraken.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.98% as of 16 ET Friday at $66,194.78 (24 hours: -0.35%)
- ETH is up 1.48% to $1,950.67 (24h: -1.63%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% to 1,916.46 (24h: -1.11%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1bp to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0011% (-1.2147% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.64% to 98.23
- Gold futures are up 3.03% at $5,406.80
- Silver futures are up 2.64% at $95.75
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.35% at 58,057.24
- The Hang Seng closed up 2.14% at 26,059.85
- The FTSE is down 0.78% at 10,825.36
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.89% to 6,022.64
- The DJIA closed Friday down 1.05% at 48,977.92
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.43% at 6,878.88
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% to 22,668.21
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.47% at 34,339.99
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.82% at 3,741.78
- The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.4 bps to 3.966%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.04% at 6,817.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.42% at 24,650.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.11% at 48,458.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.63% (0.22%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.18%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.01
- Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $169,782
- CME Futures open interest: 109,280 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 12.2 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.42%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows ether’s daily price swings with Bollinger Bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of the price.
- The gap between the bands has shrunk to $226, the narrowest since June 2025.
- Volatility typically grows as the bands narrow, meaning the token could soon see large price moves in either direction.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $175.85 (-2.88%), -2.42% to $171.60 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.44 (-4.32%), -3.46% at $80.55
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.59 (-6.15%), -2.19% at $20.14
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.39 (-4.09%), -3.73% at $30.22
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.94 (+5.80%), -1.23% at $8.83
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.29 (-4.68%), -2.70% at $15.85
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (-5.62%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-4.69%), -2.01% at $9.75
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.88 (-5.43%), -3.61% at $38.44
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.20 (-2.39%), -2.25% at $9.97
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.50 (-2.92%), -0.39% at $129.00
- Strive (ASST): closed at $7.94 (-3.05%), -2.39% at $7.75
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.82 (-5.41%), +0.44% at $6.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.66 (-12.88%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (-0.88%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$27.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.78 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$43 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.63 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.7 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- Trump says Iran war could last ‘four weeks or less’ as attacks escalate (Euronews): Trump says Iran war could last four weeks or less as US and Israeli forces continue their offensive in Iran, which is responding with hits on Gulf states, Israel and US targets.
- New Iranian attacks reported across region, including in Saudi Arabia, as US planes crash in Kuwait (BBC): New Iranian attacks were reported across the Middle East, with explosions in Bahrain, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
- US stock futures fall in pre-market trade as oil, gold pull back from highs (CoinDesk): US stocks fell in pre-market trade. Invesco QQQ ETF fell 1.5 per cent. An oil refinery in Saudi Arabia was hit by Iran, pushing WTI crude up to $75 a barrel. barrel. Gold rose more than 2% to $5,400 per ounces.
- Hedge funds, insurers rush to gauge exposure as Iran spirals (Bloomberg): Hedge funds, banks and insurers rushed to increase their exposure to the Middle East after weekend attacks on Iran fueled chaos across the region.
