Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, who previously said bitcoin could fall to $10,000, reiterated his call that bitcoin could still fall below that level, a prospect that several market analysts said would require an extreme macroeconomic shock.
In an interview with EllioTrades, McGlone said the crypto bear market may not be over and warned that bitcoin could remain vulnerable if global risk assets rebound sharply.
McGlone’s forecast was met with rebuttals from several market analysts who said that while they agree on further downside for bitcoin is possible, a drop to $10,000 would likely require an extraordinary global liquidity event.
“Analysts often get lost in short-term macro noise and sometimes extrapolate it to stupid conclusions,” said Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics.
“For an asset like bitcoin, which regularly sees tens of thousands to hundreds of billions of dollars in daily trading volume across global markets, to revisit $10,000, we would need a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war and the internet to stop working.”
Bitcoin currently hovering around $70,000, after trading between $69,000 and $71,000. BTC’s price rally appeared to coincide with oil quickly reversing most of the session’s big gains, falling $3 a barrel. barrel in minutes. Other cryptoassets including ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP also saw upward moves.
McGlone based his bearish analysis on broader macroeconomic conditions. He believes bitcoin has increasingly traded alongside other speculative assets as institutional participation in crypto markets has grown, undermining the narrative that crypto serves as an uncorrelated hedge against traditional markets.
According to McGlone, the crypto sector remains caught in a broader macroeconomic unwind driven by deflationary pressures, excess speculative supply and what he sees as an unfinished correction in traditional risk markets.
Additional disadvantages still possible
Other analysts who see potential for further bitcoin price declines also echoed Greenspan’s sentiment that McGlone’s price target is unlikely.
“A move towards levels like $28,000 would likely require a meaningful decline in global liquidity, widening of credit spreads or a broader financial stress event rather than just a late-cycle slowdown,” said Jason Fernandes, co-founder and market analyst at AdLunam.
Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, also said bitcoin could see further downside, but described the $10,000 prediction as highly unlikely.
“There will always be analysts who demand extreme price targets during a bear market,” Randin said. “Can we go down to $10,000? Yes, it’s possible, but I see it as very unlikely.”
Randin expects bitcoin to gradually slide lower in the coming months, adding that the next major accumulation zone could emerge between $30,000 and $40,000.
“If the market is in a downtrend, you’re in a bear market,” Randin said. “You will remain in a bear market until the primary trend changes.”
In the shorter term, however, he expects bitcoin to largely remain in the $60,000-$70,000 range, warning that even a move towards $80,000 could prove temporary if broader macro pressures persist.
The bottom may already be in
Greenspan said it is difficult to identify an exact market bottom, but he noted that bitcoin may have already completed its major bear market correction.
“Trying to pick an exact bottom is foolhardy,” he said. “Structurally, bitcoin already cleared its major bear market in 2022. We are currently looking at about a 50% retracement from the all-time high, which is not unusual for bitcoin.”
He added that recent price action has been encouraging and that it is “quite possible that we have already seen the bottom.”
However, McGlone believes that the market still has to go through a long-term purge of speculative excess before a sustainable bottom can be formed.
“I think it’s going to be a while, and I don’t think it’s going to end until we stamp out some of these excesses,” he said.
“It’s a bear market,” McGlone added. “Sell rallies.”
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